外部压制未解，盈利底构筑防线：股指期货数据观察

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradiction in the market this week lies in the tug - of - war between external macro - environmental suppression and internal profit support. Overseas, geopolitical risks are repeated, high oil prices and global liquidity tightening expectations continue to ferment, suppressing overall market risk appetite. Domestically, although the transmission efficiency of macro - liquidity to the stock market is limited, the industrial enterprise profit data from January to February 2026 exceeded expectations, providing a solid profit bottom support for stock indices [4]. - The profit of industrial enterprises above the national scale from January to February 2026 increased by 15.2% year - on - year, with the growth rate accelerating by 14.6 percentage points compared to the whole of last year. This improvement is due to the low - base effect of the same period last year and the substantial boost from improved corporate revenues, providing obvious support for the stock indices at the fundamental level [4]. - The uncertainty of the external environment is the main risk in the current market. The repeated Middle East situation keeps international oil prices high, and combined with the existing global inflation expectations, the expectation of liquidity tightening continues to heat up, suppressing global risk appetite and significantly inhibiting the small - cap growth style. Although Chinese assets have shown some resilience in this global fluctuation, external pressure has not been substantially relieved [4]. - In late March, the A - share market enters the intensive earnings disclosure window, and the core trading logic may gradually shift to performance verification. The large - cap value style with stable cash flow, high - dividend advantages, and profit certainty will further enhance its defensive and relative advantages. In contrast, the small - cap growth style faces greater uncertainty under the dual tests of external liquidity suppression and internal performance verification. The valuation ratio of CSI 300 to CSI 1000 is still at a relatively low historical level, providing potential momentum for the mean reversion of the large - cap style [4]. - Currently, the A - share market is in the stage of profit bottom confirmation and suppressed risk appetite. The improvement of profit data provides support for the market, but external uncertainties and the liquidity environment limit the upside space. Strategically, it is recommended to maintain a defensive mindset and continue to focus on the cross - variety arbitrage opportunity of going long on CSI 300 and short on CSI 1000 to capture the structural market where large - cap value is relatively dominant [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Tracking - Economic Kinetic Energy: Not elaborated in the provided content - Financing Demand: Not elaborated in the provided content - Scissors Difference: Not elaborated in the provided content - Liquidity Observation: Not elaborated in the provided content - Industrial Production: Not elaborated in the provided content - Investment and Consumption: Not elaborated in the provided content - Interest Rate Difference: Not elaborated in the provided content 3.2 Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - Stock Market Barometer: Not elaborated in the provided content - Stock Market Capital Flow: Not elaborated in the provided content - Futures Market Capital Flow: Not elaborated in the provided content - Spot - Futures Price Difference: Not elaborated in the provided content - Cross - Variety Price Difference: Not elaborated in the provided content - Cross - Period Price Difference: Not elaborated in the provided content