股指二季度展望：结构为先，静待回暖

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trend direction of A-shares in the second quarter has high uncertainty. Whether the stock index can strengthen again depends on two key signals: a significant increase in the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the continuous recovery of domestic consumption. If neither signal appears, the stock index is expected to maintain a sideways shock pattern. The structural market of the stock index in the second quarter is better than the trend market, and the CSI 300 index is expected to outperform small and medium-cap stock indexes and become the core allocation direction of the market [2][29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Peripheral Disturbance and the Accumulation Transition Period - The A-share market in the first quarter of 2026 can be divided into three stages. By March 24, 2026, the cumulative increases and decreases of the four major stock indexes in the first quarter were: CSI 300 index -3.35%, SSE 50 index -6.61%, CSI 500 index 1.77%, and CSI 1000 index 0.07%. Since March, the basis of stock index futures has continued to deepen, indicating a downturn in market sentiment [4]. - The market in the first quarter was dominated by the expectation of policy benefits from the Two Sessions and changes in liquidity expectations under peripheral shocks. The release of the 15th Five-Year Plan and the Two Sessions enhanced policy signals and provided support for the stock index. The nomination of the next Fed chairman and the escalation of the Middle East conflict affected liquidity expectations and led to market adjustments [6]. 3.2 Reversal of the Medium - to - Long - Term Logic? 3.2.1 Geopolitical Risks and the Slowdown of the Fed's Interest Rate Cut - The Fed's March interest rate meeting sent a hawkish signal, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% - 3.75%, raising GDP and inflation expectations, and indicating a slower interest rate cut rhythm. The Fed is unlikely to switch to raising interest rates this year, and the impact on A-shares is mainly a phased tightening of liquidity expectations, without changing the long - term global liquidity easing trend [9][14]. 3.2.2 Domestic Liquidity and Policy Support - By comparing with the stagflation environments in 2011 and 2021, it is believed that the current situation is more comparable to 2021, and the possibility of tightening the domestic monetary policy this year is low. The 15th Five - Year Plan focuses on boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, and the domestic policy and liquidity provide double support, making the medium - to - long - term positive logic of A - shares unchanged [15]. 3.3 Uncertain Trend, Promising Structure 3.3.1 Strong Drivers Needed for the Stock Index to Strengthen - The two previous upward trends of A - shares were driven by strong policy stimuli or loose liquidity expectations. In the second quarter, it is less likely for policies and liquidity to become strong drivers again. The substantial recovery of the domestic fundamentals, especially the recovery of the consumption end, will be the key for the stock index to strengthen again [18][22]. 3.3.2 Structure More Promising than Trend - In the second quarter, the structural opportunities of the stock index are more certain than the trend - restarting opportunities. The market style will tilt towards large - cap blue - chip stocks, especially the CSI 300 index. The CSI 300 index has advantages in valuation, policy benefits, and defense, and is expected to be the core allocation main line in the second quarter [24][26]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - In the second quarter, the trend of A - shares is uncertain. Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and domestic consumption recovery. The structural market is better than the trend market, and the CSI 300 index is expected to outperform [29]. - Trend strategy: Wait and see, and act opportunistically. Track the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and domestic consumption data, and buy on dips if there are positive signals; otherwise, maintain a light position [29]. - Arbitrage strategy: Recommend a long - IF and short - IM cross - variety arbitrage combination [30]. - Option strategy: Sell wide - straddle options to earn time - value income [30].