周观点：海外衰退的概率在上升-20260329

Group 1 - The probability of overseas recession is increasing, with the U.S. AI investment intensity being high but the sustainability of marginal returns is questionable. There is a possibility of external pressure transfer to maintain expansion until a systemic correction occurs in related bubbles [2][3] - The process of maintaining AI valuations in the U.S. may create a siphoning effect on global sovereign wealth, exacerbating vulnerabilities in the global financial system. If energy prices continue to rise, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve restarting the interest rate hike cycle may also increase [3] - In the context of rising global vulnerabilities, RMB assets may have relatively outstanding allocation value. It is suggested to focus on the two main lines of the RMB's phase appreciation and rising energy prices for structural adjustments in the Chinese market [3] Group 2 - The mid-term outlook is positive for coal, new energy, agriculture, electricity, oil, and U.S. capital goods related to inflation. In the long term, the focus is on insurance, central state-owned enterprises, anti-involution, and Chinese internet companies [3] - The industrial profit growth rate improved significantly in early 2026, with profit margins being the main driver. The upstream, midstream, and downstream profits generally improved, with the midstream manufacturing sector benefiting from price increases [8] - The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran has raised fears of energy supply disruptions, directly pushing up international oil prices. This cost-push inflation is a core driver of persistent inflation, leading to a potential stagflation scenario with both supply and demand weakening [8]