猪价继续下跌，养殖陷入全面亏损：农林牧渔

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [4][70]. Core Insights - The pig farming sector is experiencing a significant decline in prices, leading to widespread losses among farmers. As of March 27, the price of pigs dropped to 9.37 CNY/kg, a decrease of 0.50 CNY/kg from March 20. The profits for self-breeding and purchased pig farming are reported at -344.24 CNY/head and -189.87 CNY/head respectively, with week-on-week declines of 46.56 CNY and 48.39 CNY [2][9][28]. - The beef market shows an upward trend in prices for fattened and calf cattle, with prices reaching 26.21 CNY/kg and 35.09 CNY/kg respectively as of March 27, 2026. This is attributed to tight supply and strong market sentiment, suggesting a bullish outlook for beef prices in the coming years [3][30]. - The poultry sector is facing pressure, particularly in the white chicken segment, where prices for chicken products have declined due to falling pig prices. As of March 27, the price for white feathered meat chickens was 7.11 CNY/kg, down 0.22% week-on-week [3][39]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Continued decline in pig prices leading to comprehensive losses in farming. The average price on March 27 was 9.37 CNY/kg, with significant losses reported in farming profits [2][9][28]. - Increased slaughtering rates and rising frozen product inventories indicate a slow recovery in demand, with average daily slaughtering volume at 154,700 heads, up 3.32% from the previous week [12][28]. - The average weight of pigs at market is increasing slightly, with an average of 128.71 kg as of March 26, indicating strong selling intentions despite limited market absorption capacity [20][28]. Beef Industry - Prices for fattened and calf cattle are on the rise, with current prices at 26.21 CNY/kg and 35.09 CNY/kg respectively, reflecting a tightening supply and bullish market sentiment [3][30]. - The beef market is expected to enter an upward cycle in prices from 2026 to 2027 due to reduced supply from the ongoing decrease in breeding cows [30]. Dairy Sector - The raw milk price remains low at 3.03 CNY/kg as of March 20, with expectations of continued capacity reduction leading to a potential stabilization and recovery in prices in 2026 [31]. Poultry Sector - The white chicken segment is under pressure with declining prices for both chicken products and chicks, attributed to the impact of falling pig prices. The average price for chicks is 3.07 CNY/bird, down 0.13% week-on-week [39][42]. - The egg market is seeing a slight increase in prices due to seasonal stocking ahead of the Qingming Festival, with an average wholesale price of 7.72 CNY/kg as of March 27 [3][39]. Seed Industry - The 2026 Central Document No. 1 emphasizes the promotion of biological breeding industrialization, which is expected to enhance food security and benefit leading seed companies [52].