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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current core contradictions affecting the trends of glass and soda ash include short - term and long - term expectations for glass, and the limited valuation elasticity of soda ash due to the excess expectation. The high inventory of glass in the middle stream needs to be digested, and the capacity expansion cycle of soda ash has not ended. The cost - raising logic may boost the overall valuation [1][2]. - The trading logic for the near - term is to focus on the changes in cold - repair and ignition expectations for glass and the cost - based price fluctuations for soda ash. For the long - term, attention should be paid to supply expectations, demand verification, and cost factors [3][7]. - The trend of glass and soda ash has a cost - raising expectation in the short - term, but the upside space is limited. The 05 - contract of glass and soda ash is more about expectations before delivery, lacking clear fundamental drivers [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Glass: In the short - term, there are expectations of seasonal demand return and accelerated cold - repair of supply. In the long - term, it is about macro - policy expectations. The daily melting of float glass has dropped to around 145,000 tons, but supply decline alone cannot drive prices independently. Middle - stream high inventory is a risk, and there are ignition expectations despite accelerated cold - repair [1]. - Soda Ash: The valuation elasticity is limited due to the unchanged excess expectation. It can only follow the cost. Price movements depend on upstream inventory changes and supply or cost "stories" [2]. - Reality: The high inventory of glass in the middle stream needs to be digested, and the capacity expansion cycle of soda ash has not ended. The cost - raising logic due to overseas geopolitical issues may boost the overall valuation [2]. - Trading Logic: For the near - term, focus on cold - repair and ignition expectations for glass and cost - based price fluctuations for soda ash. For the long - term, pay attention to supply expectations, demand verification, and cost factors [3][7]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgment: There is a short - term cost - raising expectation, but the upside space is limited. Glass has weak demand, cold - repair and ignition expectations, and high middle - stream inventory. Soda ash is suppressed by high production, with limited price elasticity [9]. - Strategy Suggestion: The 05 - contract of glass and soda ash is more about expectations before delivery, lacking clear fundamental drivers [10]. 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - Glass: The spot prices of various glass products remained unchanged on March 29, 2026. The 05 - contract of glass increased by 0.48% to 1041 yuan/ton on March 27, 2026, while the 09 - contract decreased by 0.42% to 1179 yuan/ton. The daily production and sales in different regions showed fluctuations [13][14]. - Soda Ash: The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained mostly unchanged on March 27, 2026. The 05 - contract of soda ash increased by 0.33% to 1229 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract increased by 0.15% to 1310 yuan/ton [15][16]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: There is still room for positive feedback in the spot - futures market for both glass and soda ash when the market rises. The overall valuation of glass and soda ash is not high and may be driven by other sectors. There is an expectation of cost increase [16]. - Negative Information: No negative information is clearly stated in the report. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monitor whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies. Keep an eye on the cold - repair and ignition expectations of glass production lines, glass production and sales, spot prices, and soda ash spot transactions [18][19][21]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation - Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement: The expectation of the 05 - contract of glass is unclear, with weak supply and demand. The near - term spot pressure is large, and the middle - stream inventory is high. There may be a cost - raising expectation in the long - term, but the demand is unclear [22]. - Basis and Spread Structure: For glass, the 5 - 9 spread has narrowed due to accelerated cold - repair, and the 05 - contract is facing delivery pressure. For soda ash, it maintains a C - structure, and the long - term excess pattern remains unchanged [31]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - Glass: Natural - gas production lines are in loss, the cost of petroleum - coke has increased significantly, and coal - gas production lines have a small profit [46]. - Soda Ash: The cash cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1200 - 1220 yuan/ton, and the cash cost of the combined - soda process in Central China is around 950 - 1000 yuan/ton [46]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 6 - 80,000 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand. Some glass products have good export performance [53]. - Soda Ash: The monthly average net export of soda ash remains high, accounting for about 6% of the apparent demand. The cumulative export from January to February 2026 was 401,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 112,800 tons, or 39.03% [53]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - Glass: In March, the cold - repair of float glass accelerated, and the daily melting dropped below 145,000 tons. There are still some cold - repair and ignition production lines to be realized, and the cold - repair rhythm is expected to be faster [57]. - Soda Ash: The current daily production of soda ash is at a high level, with a weekly production of over 750,000 tons. Attention should be paid to the spring maintenance and capacity of some soda - ash manufacturers [60]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - Glass: The middle - stream inventory of glass remains high, and the spot pressure persists. The downstream raw - sheet inventory has increased, and the procurement is mainly for rigid demand. The demand is weak in reality [64]. - Soda Ash: The rigid demand for soda ash is moderately weak, and the middle and lower reaches mainly replenish inventory at low prices [76]. 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - Glass: The total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises is 73.622 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 814,000 heavy boxes, or 1.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.86%. The inventory days are 33.6 days, a decrease of 0.1 days from the previous period. The middle - stream inventory remains high [89]. - Soda Ash: The total inventory of soda - ash manufacturers is 1.8519 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1900 tons. Among them, the light - soda inventory is 946,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,500 tons, and the heavy - soda inventory is 905,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,600 tons [90].