一周全球宏观与资产复盘：海外高波动环境下的中国资产相对确定性

Group 1: Global Market Overview - The Iranian situation remains a key macroeconomic factor influencing global markets, leading to high volatility in financial markets during the week of March 23-27, 2026[11] - Oil prices experienced significant fluctuations, with a sharp decline following initial threats from Trump, but rebounded due to renewed tensions, indicating a potential for continued high volatility[11] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassed 4.4%, reflecting rising global bond yields amid ongoing energy crises and tightening monetary policies from central banks[12] Group 2: China's Economic Stability - Despite global volatility, China's economy shows relative certainty due to effective price stabilization policies and a robust renewable energy sector, which is expected to reduce reliance on fossil fuels in the long term[13] - China's industrial system remains resilient, providing stability in supply chains amid global disruptions caused by rising oil prices[13] - Economic indicators suggest improvement in China's economy, with signs of recovery in exports and profit margins, enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese assets in uncertain times[13] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors should remain cautious of the ongoing "stagflation" risks while focusing on the relative certainty of Chinese assets, particularly in sectors like renewable energy and essential consumer goods[14] - The stock market has faced pressure recently, but the recent downturn may have already priced in negative sentiment, suggesting potential for selective structural opportunities[14] - The bond market lacks fundamental drivers for rate declines, indicating a trading environment characterized by "watching stocks while trading bonds" and a range-bound state[14]