宏观与大类资产周报：即将进入关键4月-20260329

Domestic Economic Indicators - March PPI is expected to be around 0.6% month-on-month, with a year-on-year PPI of approximately 0.1%, potentially ending a 41-month streak of negative PPI[5] - From January to February, industrial profits increased by 15.2% year-on-year, with significant contributions from high-tech manufacturing and related raw material industries[5] Global Economic Risks - Two of the four major global economic pressures have emerged: oil prices exceeding $100 could lead to an early recession in the U.S.; the dollar index breaking 100 may pressure non-U.S. liquidity[5] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassing 5% could burden U.S. fiscal health, while the S&P 500 index may adjust by 20% if it reaches its peak, as indicated by historical patterns[5] Market Trends - Oil prices are fluctuating around $100 per barrel, prompting significant political responses, while the dollar index has reached 100, leading to gold sell-offs by central banks in Poland and Turkey[5] - If the U.S. maintains control over the situation, a critical point may be reached in mid to late April, potentially improving global risk appetite[5] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank has continued net liquidity injections, with a total net injection of 281.9 billion yuan during the week of March 23-27[21] - The average rates for R001, DR001, R007, and DR007 were 1.3871%, 1.3179%, 1.5069%, and 1.4398%, respectively, showing minor fluctuations compared to the previous week[22] Government Debt Financing - Local government debt net financing was 1305.97 billion yuan, and national debt net financing was 948.10 billion yuan, totaling approximately 2254.07 billion yuan for the week[23] - Upcoming local government debt issuance is planned at 1184.24 billion yuan, with net financing expected to be 399.68 billion yuan[23] Stock Market Performance - Major indices in the A-share market experienced declines, with the ChiNext index showing the largest drop of 1.68%[39] - The U.S. stock market also faced downward pressure, with the Nasdaq index leading the decline at 3.23%[39]