南华期货2026年二季度国债期货展望：再通胀节点前置，滞还是胀？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The focus of the bond market remains on domestic factors, with fundamentals and liquidity being the primary principles. External changes will ultimately affect the judgment through the framework [1][14] - With the desensitization of various assets, market trends are returning to their own logics, and the volatility of financial assets has converged [15] - Stagflation concerns will not be the biggest negative factor for the bond market this year, and it depends on whether it affects monetary policy decisions [17] - The economic data at the beginning of the year exceeded expectations, but some were related to the Spring Festival shift, and there are still structural problems. More data is needed to confirm a trend improvement [17] - In the short - term, the bond market is expected to remain volatile, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield oscillating between 1.76% - 1.88%, and the T main contract between 108 - 108.4. The key time window is advanced to around May, and the stabilization of the external situation may be the trigger for the narrative to shift from "inflation" to "stagflation" [2][17] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Before the Spring Festival: Price Recovery and Surge - From the beginning of the year to nearly two months after the Spring Festival, the bond market had a smooth recovery. It was not driven by a single pre - foreseeable major positive factor but by the gradual accumulation of surrounding positives [6] - After the New Year's Day holiday, the market sentiment was not good. The "redemption new rule" did not bring significant gains, and the bond market dived due to the lower - than - expected central bank bond - buying scale in December. Subsequently, the A - share market's overheating was suppressed by regulatory measures, which benefited the bond market. However, it was difficult to break through the upper limit of the T main contract's shock range of 108.15, and the 10Y yield remained around 1.83% [6] - The breakthrough came when risk assets collectively dived. The nomination of Warsh as the new Fed Chairman candidate with a hawkish policy stance impacted most major asset classes. The bond market, with its domestic - oriented pricing, completed the breakthrough of key points [7] 3.1.2 March: From Safe - Haven to Inflation Concerns - The Middle East conflict broke the previous narrative of the bond market. The market's dominant logic shifted from simple safe - haven considerations to more complex inflation and subsequent liquidity crisis narratives [13] - After the conflict, most assets except the US dollar and oil prices fell. The continuous high oil prices raised the inflation center and affected liquidity expectations, such as the continuous decline in the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in June [13] 3.2 Summary and Outlook - The bond market is highly sensitive to the macro - environment, indicating the importance of the traditional framework [14] - Future bond market focus remains on domestic factors. It is more important to adhere to the framework of fundamentals and liquidity rather than tracking geopolitical situations [14] - Stagflation concerns will not be the biggest negative for the bond market this year, and it depends on whether it affects monetary policy decisions [17] - The economic data at the beginning of the year exceeded expectations, but more data is needed to confirm a trend improvement [17] - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield in the range of 1.76% - 1.88% and the T main contract in the range of 108 - 108.4. The key time window is advanced to around May, and the stabilization of the external situation may be the trigger for the narrative shift [17] 3.3 Stagflation: Does It Necessarily Destroy Everything? 3.3.1 2021: A Different Stagflation Cycle - In 2021, due to the low - base effect of the previous year's economic data and overseas fiscal stimulus, it was a stagflation year. However, the bond market did not face significant pressure, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield showed a downward trend [19][20] - The inflation in 2021 was not a result of systematic supply - demand mismatch, so the monetary policy favored stable growth. The bond market was more likely to remain volatile until the inflation problem was resolved [22] 3.3.2 How to View the Current Inflation Pressure? - The current inflation pressure is different from that in 2011. The current supply - demand contradiction is on both sides, and the monetary policy will not be tightened systematically as in 2011 [24] - The current approach to inflation is similar to that in 2021. In 2021, administrative intervention was used to control commodity prices, and the spill - over effect on the equity market was limited [24][25] 3.3.3 Current Inflation Repair - Due to the low - base effect in the first half of 2025, the pressure for prices to turn positive is not high. The Middle East conflict may advance the inflation inflection point to April. After the inflection point, it is necessary to consider whether the demand side can provide support and the possibility of PPI - CPI divergence [28] - The current price recovery is not mainly due to the improvement of domestic demand. The improvement in inflation data is limited, and the price increase in PPI is mainly concentrated in the mid - upstream, with insufficient downstream transmission [30] 3.4 Pay Attention to the Opportunity of Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut in the Second Quarter 3.4.1 Sufficient and Stable Liquidity in the First Quarter - In the first quarter, the central bank formed a medium - and long - term liquidity injection system, and the money market maintained stable and sufficient liquidity without the implementation of total - volume tools, which supported the bond market [32] 3.4.2 Key Policy Statements in Q1 - At the beginning of the year, structural tools were implemented, including adjusting the interest rates of structural tools, merging and increasing the amount of existing tools, and expanding the scope of support. The central bank also clarified the factors affecting bond trading operations [34] - The central bank's report on the fourth - quarter monetary policy in 2025 addressed the issue of deposit transfer. It pointed out that the overall liquidity remained stable, and the impact on a single asset market was limited, but some banks might face liability - side pressure [35] 3.4.3 Opportunity of Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut in the Second Quarter - The central bank is more concerned about the demand - side pressure. The current inflation is mainly due to the base effect and external shocks, and the economic data lacks trend support. Historically, non - demand - driven inflation does not lead to a change in the direction of monetary policy [36] - Although the reserve requirement ratio is approaching the 5% lower limit, it may not be a problem. With the improvement of the macro - prudential assessment system, the importance of the 5% lower limit is decreasing [47] - The net回笼 of funds through repurchase in March may lead to the expectation of using reserve requirement ratio cuts to inject long - term liquidity. Reserve requirement ratio cuts have advantages in terms of cost, signal effect, and saving interest - rate cut space [51]