南华期货镍、不锈钢产业周报：印尼扰动再起，宽幅震荡-20260329

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel and stainless - steel prices fluctuate widely this week. Policy disturbances push prices up mid - week, but limited breakthrough power due to macro - level impacts causes prices to decline again. The situation of the US - Iran war eases, and some traders bet on a near - term cease - fire. The Indonesian tax policy is still under discussion, and if implemented, it will strengthen the bottom space of the nickel industry chain. [3] - In the short - term, the trading logic of nickel and stainless - steel futures is mainly influenced by macro factors and Indonesian policies. There is strong bottom support for Shanghai nickel due to the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season expectation. In the long - term, the trading logic focuses on supply - demand structure adjustment, with Indonesian supply and new - energy demand being key factors. [4][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The nickel and stainless - steel markets show wide - range fluctuations. Policy disturbances and macro - level impacts are the main factors. The Indonesian tax policy and RKAB quota approval are important variables. The supply of nickel ore and nickel iron shows different trends, and the demand for stainless steel is gradually recovering. [3] - The near - term trading logic is affected by macro and Indonesian policies, with strong bottom support for Shanghai nickel. The long - term trading logic focuses on supply - demand structure adjustment, and new - energy demand may increase. [4][7] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - The basis and calendar - spread strategies of nickel and stainless - steel show no obvious arbitrage opportunities currently. [9] - The past trading strategies include buying and selling different nickel futures contracts and options, some of which have been closed with profits. [9] 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For nickel, the price range is predicted to be 12,500 - 15,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2%. Risk - management strategies include shorting futures and options for inventory management and buying futures and options for procurement management. [10] - For stainless steel, the price range is predicted to be 1,250 - 1,500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.48% and a historical percentile of 36.6%. Similar risk - management strategies are recommended for inventory and procurement management. [11] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns - Likely Positive Information: Downstream stainless - steel demand recovers and inventory decreases. ESDM estimates the first - quarter approval quota to be 100 million tons, and plans to add tax - payment progress to the RKAB approval process. [12] - Likely Negative Information: The US dollar index strengthens, suppressing the metal market. The Fed's interest - rate hike expectation rises, and the implementation of the Indonesian nickel product windfall tax and export tax is postponed. [12] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - Domestic Market: Nickel and stainless - steel futures show a strong trend this week. The price once reaches 138,000, but then drops due to macro - level suppression. The fundamentals have peak - season expectations, with inventory and warehouse receipts decreasing, and stainless - steel downstream production increasing. The cash market shows price stability and strong demand recovery. [13] - The net positions of key profitable seats in nickel decrease, with more long - position liquidation during the upward movement. For stainless steel, trading volume and open interest increase during the mid - week recovery, and there are opportunities to go long at low prices considering the peak - season expectation. [14] - There are no obvious changes in the basis and calendar - spread structures of nickel and stainless - steel, with no obvious arbitrage opportunities. [21] - International Market: The international market leads the domestic market, and the price hovers around 17,300. Indonesian policy disturbances have a stronger impact on the domestic market sentiment, while macro - level suppression is first reflected in the international market. There are frequent arbitrage opportunities between the domestic and international markets. The inventory of LME nickel decreases due to changes in delivery brands. [27] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - In the current downward range, the profit pressure of the nickel industry chain decreases after the disk rebound. The profit of integrated production of electrowon nickel from intermediates is high, the profit of pyrometallurgical production lines is still in a game, and the profit of nickel iron is also repaired. The price of upstream nickel ore is firm, and the downstream stainless - steel industry tries to lower raw - material prices. The profit of producing nickel sulfate from pure nickel in the new - energy sector shrinks, while the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rises. [40] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - The supply of the nickel industry chain fluctuates more recently. Nickel ore production and shipment in Indonesia and the Philippines increase after the rainy season. ESDM expects to approve about 100 million tons of quotas in the first quarter, and the bottom support of nickel ore remains. The supply of nickel iron is expected to increase, but the domestic nickel - iron production is at a historical low due to cost competition. The supply of new - energy and intermediate products may decrease in the short - and medium - term. [42][43] 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - The valuation of nickel and stainless - steel is rising and adjusting. After the festival, upstream producers hold back supply and raise prices, and downstream demand in March and April is increasing. The new - energy chain shows a stable and strong price, with no obvious increase in marginal demand for nickel salts and nickel sulfate. There is an expectation of battery export rush in April, but it has not fully affected the demand for nickel sulfate. The stainless - steel inventory decreases slightly, and downstream demand is expected to increase in March and April. [48]