日耗环比改善，煤价稳步向上：煤炭

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [6] Core Views - Geopolitical events are increasing countries' willingness to control energy and resources, leading to a trend of rising prices for resources, including coal [5] - The domestic focus is on reversing the "involution" to achieve the fundamental goal of turning around the Producer Price Index (PPI), with expectations for more supply-side policies to be introduced [5] - Coal prices are expected to fluctuate and rise amid uncertain demand changes, with a focus on high-quality core stocks as primary targets [5] - The coal industry is in a "golden era" due to energy transformation and safety demands, with limited supply elasticity and increasing extraction difficulties [5] Summary by Sections Coal Market Overview - As of March 27, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 761 CNY/ton, up 26 CNY/ton week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 96 CNY/ton [3][30] - Daily average production from 462 sample mines is 5.606 million tons, up 108,000 tons week-on-week, but down 1.3% year-on-year [3][38] - The daily consumption of six major power plants increased to 788,000 tons, up 10.2% week-on-week [40] Coking Coal - As of March 27, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,750 CNY/ton, up 130 CNY/ton week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 370 CNY/ton [73] - The average daily production of coking coal from 523 sample mines is 786,000 tons, down 1.52% week-on-week [72] Supply and Demand - The supply of thermal coal is constrained by strict capacity controls and increasing extraction difficulties, leading to a new normal of underproduction [5] - The demand for methanol and urea remains high, with operating rates at 92.7% and 88.4% respectively [40][44] - The total inventory index for thermal coal is 199.2 points, up 2% week-on-week [49] Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry for their strong resource endowments and stable performance [6] - Stocks with production growth potential benefiting from the coal price cycle include Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy [6] - Companies with global resource scarcity attributes such as Huaibei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal are also highlighted [6]