二季度宏观策略：全球能源告急，中国逆风破局

Group 1: Domestic Macroeconomic Outlook - The second quarter of 2026 is expected to be the peak for nominal GDP growth, with a forecasted GDP growth rate of 4.8% [9] - The first industry is anticipated to maintain stable growth due to policies supporting food security, while the second industry is expected to benefit from strong exports and industrial growth [11][10] - The service sector's growth may slow down, with production services likely outpacing consumer services due to the impact of new productivity drivers like artificial intelligence [12] Group 2: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment is projected to stabilize, with a growth rate of approximately 2.6% in Q2, supported by manufacturing and infrastructure investments [14][20] - Manufacturing investment is expected to grow by 4.2% in the first half of 2026, driven by government support and improved export expectations [26][28] - The focus on high-quality investment in the energy sector is emphasized, with significant funding allocated for power infrastructure projects [22][24] Group 3: Export and Trade Dynamics - Exports are projected to grow by 13.1% in Q2, benefiting from order returns and tariff adjustments, contributing significantly to GDP growth [14][15] - The trade surplus is expected to increase by 34% year-on-year, reinforcing the positive contribution of external demand to GDP [14] Group 4: Price and Inflation Expectations - CPI is expected to rise to around 1.1% in Q2, driven by input costs and the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil prices [15] - The PPI is forecasted to reach approximately 1.4%, indicating a significant recovery in price levels due to external factors [15] Group 5: Asset Class Outlook - A-shares are anticipated to rebound from the bottom, benefiting from the resilient energy system amid high oil prices [2] - The US dollar index may remain strong, with 10-year Treasury yields potentially breaking above 4.5%, putting pressure on US equities [2]