高波动成为新常态，贵金属风控为先

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2, the precious metals market will remain in a fierce game between macro - expectations and geopolitical risks, with high - volatility characteristics hard to fade quickly. The core drivers focus on two main lines: the Fed's policy path and the trend of US Treasury yields, and the evolution of the US - Iran situation and the navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz. The market is likely to continue a wide - range shock pattern [3][98]. - Gold's macro - suppression is the short - term dominant factor, but geopolitical risks have not subsided. Gold's core position as the ultimate safe - haven asset remains stable, and the correction can be regarded as a medium - to - long - term allocation window. Silver will fluctuate more violently, and it is difficult to participate. Platinum shows relative resilience, while palladium will continue to lag due to its weak fundamentals [4][101]. - In operation, it is recommended to prioritize risk control and take a long - term perspective. Gold can be used as a strategic bottom - position and gradually deployed on dips. For silver and platinum - group metals, only extremely light - position short - term participation or waiting and seeing is recommended, and heavy - position chasing up or killing down should be avoided [5][101]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market Review - In Q1 2026, the precious metals market experienced extreme fluctuations from a historic surge to a cliff - like flash crash and then to a continuous deep adjustment. The market's driving logic switched among geopolitical risks, policy expectations, and macro - suppression, with significant differentiation among varieties [7]. - From January to mid - February, geopolitical and policy expectations resonated, leading to a historic surge in precious metals. However, on January 30, the market reversed due to changes in policy expectations, and precious metals crashed. In February, the market entered a high - level shock consolidation phase [8]. - From late February to March, geopolitical conflicts and macro - suppression alternately dominated, and precious metals entered a deep adjustment. Platinum and palladium showed different performances in the macro - suppression, with platinum showing relative resistance and palladium falling more significantly [9][10]. - In late March, the market entered a stage of repeated news and low - level shocks, with precious metals showing different degrees of fluctuations [11]. 3.2 Macro - analysis 3.2.1 Geopolitical Risks - In Q1, global geopolitical situations deteriorated. Different from the traditional "conflict means safe - haven" logic, precious metals did not rise with oil prices but fell after the conflict escalated. Geopolitical risks are reshaping the precious metals' valuation system through the "inflation transmission" path [31]. - Currently, the Middle - East conflict is deadlocked, and geopolitical risks have not subsided. Its impact on precious metals has shifted from direct safe - haven driving to indirect transmission through "inflation expectations - macro - policies - US dollar valuation." In the short term, high oil prices and tight macro - expectations suppress precious metals, but the market's over - pessimistic pricing of the Fed's interest - rate hikes may be corrected [32]. 3.2.2 Monetary Policy - The Fed's March interest - rate meeting kept the federal funds rate unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. However, the Fed is facing unprecedented uncertainties. The meeting signaled that inflation prevention is the top priority, and the space for interest - rate cuts this year has narrowed [33][34]. - Powell admitted the difficulty of predicting the future and policy modeling due to geopolitical conflicts. He also refuted the "stagflation" narrative to maintain the discourse power of economic narratives. His stance on staying in office provides short - term stability but leaves medium - to - long - term uncertainties [36][37]. 3.2.3 Inflation - In February 2026, the US CPI performance was "average." The market's focus has shifted to how oil prices will push up inflation after March and how the Fed will balance the "stagflation" risk. The 2026 interest - rate cut expectation has been revised down to "at most once" [43]. 3.2.4 Economic Growth - In February, the US manufacturing PMI expansion slowed down, with input prices soaring to a four - year high. The service PMI jumped unexpectedly, with new orders and backlogs surging. The employment data in February was unexpectedly negative, strengthening the market's concern about the cooling labor market. In the long - term, the weak employment and high inflation situation intensifies the market's concern about "stagflation" [46][47][49]. 3.2.5 US Treasury Yields and the US Dollar Index - In Q1, the US Treasury market fluctuated violently due to geopolitical conflicts. The yields of two - year, five - year, and ten - year US Treasuries rose significantly. The US dollar index strengthened in Q1, directly suppressing precious metals [57][59]. 3.3 Precious Metals Supply - demand Analysis 3.3.1 Gold - In Q4 2025, the global gold market was strong, with total demand and gold prices hitting record highs. Investment demand was the core driver. Supply increased slightly, while investment demand grew explosively. The demand structure was significantly differentiated, with high gold prices suppressing physical gold jewelry consumption but increasing the demand value [61][62]. 3.3.2 Silver - In 2025, the global silver market is expected to show a "moderate decline in total demand but significant structural differentiation" feature. Industrial demand remains strong, and there is a continuous supply - demand gap, providing medium - to - long - term support for silver prices [67]. 3.3.3 Platinum - In 2025, the platinum market was in a supply shortage for the third consecutive year, and the gap widened. In 2026, the shortage pattern is expected to continue, and the fundamental support has been significantly enhanced [71][74]. 3.3.4 Palladium - The palladium market presents a complex pattern of "short - term shortage and long - term structural pressure." In the short term, the supply is tight, but in the long term, the demand for palladium in fuel - vehicle catalysts may decline due to the global automotive electrification transformation [77]. 3.4 Position, Inventory, and Seasonal Analysis 3.4.1 Gold ETF Holdings - In February 2026, global gold ETFs continued to see strong inflows, with the total holdings reaching a new high. Different regions showed different trends, with North America leading the inflow, Europe having outflows, and Asia and other regions having inflows. Gold and silver ETF flows indicate that the bullish sentiment has converged [80][81][83]. 3.4.2 CFTC Positions - As of the week of March 17, 2026, the non - commercial net long positions of gold and silver futures decreased, indicating a decline in the bullish sentiment. The non - commercial net long positions of platinum futures decreased slightly, while those of palladium futures increased [87]. 3.4.3 Inventory Analysis - As of March 25, 2026, the COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased significantly, the SHFE gold inventory reached a new high, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased. The NYMEX platinum inventory decreased, and the NYMEX palladium inventory increased [92]. 3.5 Outlook and Operation Suggestions - In Q2, the precious metals market will be in a game between macro - expectations and geopolitical risks, likely to continue a wide - range shock pattern. Gold can be considered for medium - to - long - term allocation on dips. Silver and platinum - group metals are highly volatile, and only light - position short - term participation or waiting and seeing is recommended [98][101].