中东局势不明，铜价震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, copper prices fluctuated mainly due to the potential for further escalation of the Middle East situation, limited shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, high international crude oil prices weighing on risk - related assets, and the Fed's cautious and hawkish stance. Fundamentally, some overseas interrupted mines tend to restart, but the element shortage pattern remains, global inventories are falling from high levels, domestic terminal consumption is slowly recovering, and the near - month B - structure of the futures market has returned to par [1][6]. - The direction and duration of the US - Iran conflict are uncertain, and the Fed's hawkish signals are suppressing global risk preferences. Macro - sentiment repair will take time. Fundamentally, although there is an expectation of looser concentrate supply, the reality is still tight, global refined copper production capacity expansion is extremely limited, terminal consumption is gradually recovering, and visible inventories are falling. In a tight - balanced fundamental state, copper prices are expected to continue to rise after adjustment, and geopolitical risks should be monitored [1][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - LME copper rose from $11,834.50/ton to $12,141.00/ton, a 2.59% increase; COMEX copper rose from 530.2 cents/pound to 546.15 cents/pound, a 3.01% increase; SHFE copper rose from 94,740 yuan/ton to 95,930 yuan/ton, a 1.26% increase; international copper rose from 83,810 yuan/ton to 84,840 yuan/ton, a 1.23% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.01 to 7.90. The LME spot premium/discount increased from -$91.00/ton to -$70.86/ton, a - 22.13% change, and the Shanghai spot premium/discount decreased from - 45 yuan/ton to - 95 yuan/ton [2]. - As of March 30, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai Bonded Area was 1.371886 million tons, a 3.41% decrease from 1.420257 million tons on March 23. LME copper inventory increased by 18,000 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 52,000 tons, and Shanghai Bonded Area inventory decreased by 14,000 tons [5][6]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro - aspect: The US is preparing for a ground operation in Iran, and the US - Iran conflict's direction is unclear, which has not calmed global capital market concerns. The Fed is cautious and hawkish, and risk - related assets are under pressure. The ECB is evaluating the impact of the Middle East situation on inflation and is ready to adjust policies if necessary. In China, industrial enterprise profits from January to February increased by 15.2% year - on - year, with high - tech manufacturing leading the growth [6][7]. - Supply - demand aspect: The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is expected to restart in 2 - 3 weeks, with this year's output expected to be similar to last year. The复产 time of Kamoa is unknown, and Panama is unlikely to resume production in the first half of the year. Global refined copper production capacity growth is extremely limited. In terms of demand, domestic cable orders are gradually recovering, new - energy vehicle production is entering the peak season, the decline in white - goods production is narrowing, and AI data center construction is accelerating. Terminal consumption is slowly recovering, and domestic inventories are falling from high levels [8]. 3.3 Industry News - Rio Tinto plans to mine the Resolution copper mine in Arizona in the mid - 2030s, but may export some copper concentrates due to US smelting challenges. The company has obtained the land - use right for the mine and has started a $500 - million drilling project. Its Kennecott copper mine in the US has suspended partial operations due to a worker's death [9]. - Coeur Mining has raised its 2026 production outlook after acquiring New Gold. It is expected to produce 680,000 - 815,000 ounces of gold, 18.68 - 21.93 million ounces of silver, and 50 - 65 million pounds of copper in 2026 [10]. - Barrick Mining will slow down the development of the Reko Diq deposit in Pakistan and extend the project review period due to security concerns in the Middle East. The project was originally planned to start production in 2028 [11][12].