锌周报：混沌期情绪反复，锌价宽幅震荡-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures stabilized and rebounded weakly. The market is in a chaotic period due to the uncertain Middle - East situation, with risk appetite under pressure. The high oil prices and strong US dollar, along with the delayed expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, suppress zinc prices. However, the fundamentals are marginally repaired, with supply of zinc ore tightening, which slows down the release of refined zinc, and consumption slowly recovering. The social inventory of zinc ingots is expected to continue to decline, providing support. In the short - term, zinc prices are expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation as they are still anchored to the geopolitical situation [3][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - From March 20th to March 27th, the SHFE zinc price rose from 22,935 yuan/ton to 23,380 yuan/ton, an increase of 445 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 3056 dollars/ton to 3106.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 50.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 7.50 to 7.53. The SHFE inventory decreased by 3436 tons to 148,830 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 2300 tons to 115,375 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 1.66 million tons to 24.95 million tons. The spot premium increased from - 90 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market Review - The main contract ZN2605 of Shanghai zinc futures stabilized and rebounded weakly. On one hand, the panic sentiment in the market was repaired after Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities; on the other hand, the low price drove downstream purchases, and the weekly inventory decline provided support. The contract finally closed at 23,380 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.94%. LME zinc stopped falling, stabilized, and then fluctuated in a narrow range. With the Middle - East situation showing signs of relief, the concern about economic recession weakened, the rise of the US dollar slowed down, and the LME inventory continued to decline slightly. The contract finally closed at 3106.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.65% [5]. - In the spot market, as of March 27th, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was between 23,085 - 23,305 yuan/ton. The downstream maintained the rhythm of buying at low prices, but traders had a sentiment of holding up prices, and the spot discount narrowed. As of March 27th, the LME zinc ingot inventory was 115,375 tons, a weekly decrease of 2300 tons; the SHFE inventory was 148,830 tons, a decrease of 3436 tons. As of March 26th, the social inventory was 24.95 million tons, a decrease of 0.57 million tons compared with Monday and 1.66 million tons compared with last Thursday [6]. 3.3 Industry News - SMM data shows that the processing fee for domestic zinc concentrate in April is reported at 1300 - 1700 yuan/metal ton, with the average remaining flat month - on - month [11]. - ILZSG reported that in January this year, the global zinc market changed from a supply shortage of 75,100 tons in December last year to a supply surplus of 9,200 tons. The supply surplus in January 2026 decreased compared with 16,000 tons in the same period last year [12]. - The China Zinc Raw Material Joint Negotiation Group (CZSPT) held a quarterly meeting and released the guidance price range for the purchase of imported zinc concentrate in US dollars (TC) before the end of the second quarter of 2026: 35 - 70 dollars/dry ton (average) [12]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trend charts of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc, the ratio of internal and external markets, spot premiums and discounts, inventory data of SHFE, LME, and bonded areas, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, net imports of refined zinc, and the start - up rate of downstream primary enterprises [14][17][19][26].