山金期货黑色板块日报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel sector: The market has entered a seasonal inventory - reduction phase. Although the current market sentiment is pessimistic about the future, the recent sharp rise in crude oil prices has pushed up costs, providing some support for futures prices. Technically, futures prices are oscillating between the middle and upper bands of the Bollinger Bands, and there is a possibility of stabilizing and rebounding after a short - term retracement to the support level. The recommended strategy is to go long with a light position at low prices, be cautious about chasing up, and take profits in time when prices rise, treating the market with an oscillatory mindset [2]. - For the iron ore sector: As the market enters the consumption peak season, the output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, and the daily average hot metal output increased. The short - term impact of Australian weather on port shipments has boosted iron ore futures prices, but the shipments are expected to improve rapidly as the weather in the Southern Hemisphere gets better. Technically, the futures price shows significant resistance above after breaking through the upper Bollinger Band. The recommended operation is also to go long with a light position at low prices, be cautious about chasing up, and take profits in time when prices rise, treating the market with an oscillatory mindset [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils 3.1.1. Supply and Demand - Last week, the total output of five major varieties from 247 sample steel mills changed little, inventory decreased, and apparent demand continued to rebound. The market has entered a seasonal inventory - reduction state. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate is 79.78%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.44 percentage points. The daily average hot metal output is 231.09 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.94 million tons or 1.29%. The proportion of profitable steel mills is 43.29%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87 percentage points. The national building materials steel mill threaded rod output is 197.87 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.46 million tons or 2.69%. The hot - rolled coil output is 305.61 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.40 million tons or 1.80% [2]. 3.1.2. Inventory - The social inventory of five major varieties is 1387.69 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23.33 million tons or 1.65%. The threaded rod social inventory is 642.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.46 million tons or 1.60%. The hot - rolled coil social inventory is 369.42 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.91 million tons or 1.84%. The steel mill inventory of five major varieties is 510.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25.06 million tons or 4.68% [2]. 3.1.3. Apparent Demand - The apparent demand for five major varieties is 887.97 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 19.49 million tons or 2.24%. The apparent demand for threaded rods is 225.37 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 17.28 million tons or 8.30%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 313.63 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.12 million tons or 1.00% [2]. 3.1.4. Futures and Spot Prices - The closing price of the threaded rod main contract is 3124 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan or 0.13% from the previous day and an increase of 1 yuan or 0.03% from last week. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3299 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan or 0.18% from the previous day and an increase of 2 yuan or 0.06% from last week [2]. 3.1.5. Operation Suggestion - Go long with a light position at low prices, be cautious about chasing up, and take profits in time when prices rise, treating the market with an oscillatory mindset [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore 3.2.1. Supply and Demand - The market is entering the consumption peak season. The output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, and the daily average hot metal output increased by 2.9 million tons to 231.2 million tons week - on - week, with the growth rate narrowing. The short - term impact of Australian weather on port shipments has boosted iron ore futures prices, but shipments are expected to improve rapidly as the weather in the Southern Hemisphere gets better [4]. 3.2.2. Inventory - The port inventory decreased week - on - week. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 17000.31 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 98.09 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume is 313.17 million tons, a decrease of 7.80 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports is 17666.83 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 147.35 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume is 330.31 million tons, a decrease of 5.61 million tons [8]. 3.2.3. Futures and Spot Prices - The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 812 yuan/dry ton, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 3.5 yuan or 0.43% from last week. The settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 106.95 US dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 0.39 US dollars or 0.36% from the previous day and a decrease of 0.36 US dollars or 0.34% from last week [5]. 3.2.4. Operation Suggestion - Go long with a light position at low prices, be cautious about chasing up, and take profits in time when prices rise, treating the market with an oscillatory mindset [4].