铁矿周报：铁水连续增加，铁矿震荡偏强-20260330

Group 1: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The demand side shows that last week, the molten iron output increased continuously, the steel mill profits rebounded, the production rhythm was good, and the raw material demand was in an upward stage. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.03%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.08 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 2.3109 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 61,900 tons [1][4]. - On the supply side, last week, both overseas shipments and arrivals increased week - on - week. However, steel mills actively purchased, port desilting was good, and inventory continued to decline. The total global iron ore shipments were 3.1443 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 95,500 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 17.66683 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 147,350 tons; the daily average desilting volume was 330,310 tons, a decrease of 5,610 tons [1][5]. - Overall, it is expected that the iron ore price will continue the volatile and upward trend [1][6]. Group 3: Transaction Data - SHFE rebar: closing price 3,124 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan, up 0.03%, total trading volume 4,322,964 lots, total open interest 2,309,613 lots [2]. - SHFE hot - rolled coil: closing price 3,299 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan, up 0.06%, total trading volume 1,468,357 lots, total open interest 962,265 lots [2]. - DCE iron ore: closing price 817.0 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan, up 0.18%, total trading volume 1,078,183 lots, total open interest 408,026 lots [2]. - DCE coking coal: closing price 1,219.0 yuan/ton, up 48.0 yuan, up 4.10%, total trading volume 7,330,872 lots, total open interest 669,897 lots [2]. - DCE coke: closing price 1,752.0 yuan/ton, up 11.5 yuan, up 0.66%, total trading volume 148,101 lots, total open interest 46,589 lots [2]. Group 4: Market Review - Last week, the iron ore futures showed a volatile trend. Affected by the overseas geopolitical conflict sentiment, the futures price fluctuated mainly after rising and then falling. In the spot market, the quotation of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 783 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 668 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 115 yuan/ton [4]. Group 5: Industry News - On March 25, the commissioning ceremony of the Simandou bonded crushing project and the arrival ceremony of the first ship of iron ore of SimFer were held in Dalian, marking the official opening of a new iron ore logistics channel connecting West Africa's Guinea and Northeast China [7]. - US President Trump said that the US had a "strong" dialogue with Iran and had formed the main points of an agreement, and would suspend the strike on its energy facilities for 5 days. He also said that the US was negotiating a broader agreement with Iran, and the US and Iran "might reach an agreement within 5 days or even less". However, Iran has repeatedly denied having a dialogue with the US. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said that Trump's statement was aimed at reducing energy prices and buying time for military operations [7]. - The US government proposed a 15 - condition conflict - ending plan to Iran through Pakistan, covering nuclear programs, missile capabilities, and regional issues. It is reported that the US is considering promoting a one - month cease - fire for further negotiations on the above terms [7]. - US President Trump said that the strike on Iran's energy facilities would be postponed for another 10 days until 8 p.m. on April 6, 2026, Eastern Time. He also denied being eager to reach an agreement with Iran and said that the US military operations against Iran were continuing, insisting that it was Iran that sought to restart the negotiations [7]. - On March 22, Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the People's Bank of China, said at the China Development Forum 2026 that China would continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, comprehensively using various monetary policy tools such as the deposit - reserve ratio, policy interest rates, and open - market operations to maintain sufficient liquidity [7]. - On March 27, the US and Israel launched air strikes on the Khuzestan Steel Plant and the Mobarakeh Steel Plant in Isfahan, Iran. The power plant supporting the Mobarakeh Steel Plant was also attacked. It is expected that a rigid supply gap of 5 - 5.5 million tons per year will be formed in the short term, with the most prominent gaps in the three categories of plates, billets, and long products [7]. - On March 28, two major aluminum plants in the Middle East were attacked. The factory of Bahrain Aluminum Company was attacked by Iran, and property losses were being evaluated. The United Arab Emirates Global Aluminum Company, one of the world's largest aluminum producers, was also attacked by Iran. It is understood that the aluminum products exported from the Middle East account for about 10% of the global supply, which may have a certain impact on the market [7]. - US Vice - President Vance said that the US had no intention of staying in Iran and would withdraw soon after dealing with current affairs [7]. - The US military's plan for a rapid ground - war victory within a few weeks was exposed. The Pentagon proposed a "sharp - blade beheading" tactic, aiming at the oil - rich Khark Island in Iran without occupying territory or waging a long - term war, trying to replicate the "42 - day defeat of Iraq" myth [7]. Group 6: Related Charts - The report provides 26 charts, including those related to steel mill profitability, iron production, iron ore shipments, arrivals, inventory, and price differentials, with data sources from iFinD, Mysteel, and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [8][9][11]