五矿期货农产品早报-20260330

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, due to the uncertain situation between the US and Iran and unstable international oil prices, and the recent rise of raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar driven by rising oil prices, the view on sugar price trends turns to wait - and - see [5]. - For cotton, Trump's proposed visit to China in May is short - term positive for US cotton prices. In the medium term, with the increase in the opening rate of domestic mid - and downstream enterprises, it is recommended to try to go long on dips [9]. - For protein meal, Trump's proposed visit to China is short - term positive for US soybean prices and raises the valuation of domestic protein meal, while the relaxation of inspection standards for Brazilian soybean imports is negative. Overall, the price of protein meal fluctuates greatly and lacks certainty, so short - term wait - and - see is maintained [12]. - For oils, the current price trend of oils mainly depends on the US - Iran event. Before the event ends, with high oil prices and the expectation of Indonesia tightening palm oil exports, a bullish view is maintained in the medium term [15]. - For eggs, the supply is generally sufficient, but the shortage of small eggs and seasonal stocking make the spot price strong, but the short - term upside is limited. For the futures, hold short positions in the far - end contracts and wait to short on rebounds in the near - end contracts [18]. - For pigs, the supply - side fundamentals have limited room for improvement. The spot price is still weak in the short term. For the futures, consider shorting on rebounds, and there is no value in going long in the far - end contracts [21]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - Market Information: - The consulting firm Safras&Mercado predicts that Brazil's sugar exports in the 2026/27 season will decrease by 14.2% to 29 million tons, and production will drop from 43.5 million tons to 40.3 million tons due to high energy prices [4]. - From January to February 2026, China's sugar imports increased by 440,000 tons compared with the same period last year [4]. - In February, China's cumulative sugar production was 9.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 455,000 tons; single - month sales were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 266,000 tons; and industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 840,000 tons [4]. - As of March 15, 2026, India's cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 26.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons; Thailand's sugar production was 10.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 545,000 tons [4]. - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 181.29 million tons [4]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Wait - and - see due to the unstable international oil prices [5]. Cotton - Market Information: - Trump announced a planned visit to China from May 14 to 15, and China and the US are in communication about it [7]. - From January to February 2026, China's cotton imports increased by 110,000 tons compared with the same period last year, and cotton yarn imports increased by 80,000 tons [7]. - The National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 300,000 - ton tariff - rate quota for processing trade imports [7]. - From March 12 to 19, the US current - year cotton export sales were 52,900 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 2.2449 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 154,400 tons; exports to China were 3,300 tons, and the cumulative exports to China were 109,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72,500 tons [7]. - As of the week of March 27, the spinning mill opening rate was 78.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.5 percentage points [7]. - The USDA predicts that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season will be 26.34 million tons, an increase of 240,000 tons from the February prediction and 540,000 tons from the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 64.42%, an increase of 1.15 percentage points from the February prediction and 2.4 percentage points from the previous year [7]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Short - term positive for US cotton prices, and consider going long on dips in the medium term [9]. Protein Meal - Market Information: - Trump announced a planned visit to China from May 14 to 15, and China and the US are in communication about it [11]. - From March 5 to 12, the US exported 300,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative exports were 36.79 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.84 million tons; exports to China were 80,000 tons, and the current - year cumulative exports to China were 10.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.65 million tons [11]. - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 16.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.48 million tons; the sample soybean port inventory was 5.13 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52 million tons [11]. - The USDA predicts that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season will be 427.17 million tons, a decrease of 990,000 tons from the February prediction and an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.54%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the February prediction and 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [11]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Short - term positive for US soybean prices, but the relaxation of Brazilian soybean import inspection standards is negative. Short - term wait - and - see [12]. Oils - Market Information: - The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) set the total biofuel compliance obligation at 26.81 billion RINs in 2026 and 27.02 billion RINs in 2027, and large refineries are required to bear 70% of the exemption quota [14]. - The President of Indonesia said that coal, crude palm oil and its derivatives producers in Indonesia cannot export related products before meeting domestic demand [14]. - The Deputy Minister of Energy of Indonesia said that the government is studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year [14]. - In January 2026, Indonesia's palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 490,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 860,000 tons [14]. - In February, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 300,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 90,000 tons; exports were 1.13 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 330,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 130,000 tons; inventory was 2.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.19 million tons [14]. - As of the end of February, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 120,000 tons and basically the same as the same period last year [14]. - In the week of March 20, the domestic sample data of the three major oils inventory was 1.95 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 95,000 tons [14]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Bullish in the medium term due to the US - Iran event and the expectation of Indonesia tightening palm oil exports [15]. Eggs - Market Information: - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were partially stable, with some low - price areas rising and high - price areas falling. The supply of large - sized eggs in the production area is abundant, while the supply of small - sized eggs is still tight. With the approaching of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the procurement volume may increase slightly, but the increase is limited [17]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply is generally sufficient, but the shortage of small eggs and seasonal stocking make the spot price strong, but the short - term upside is limited. Hold short positions in the far - end contracts and wait to short on rebounds in the near - end contracts [18]. Pigs - Market Information: - Over the weekend, the decline of domestic pig prices slowed down, with some rising, some falling and some stable. At the end of the month, the reduction of supply by some farmers and the support of second - fattening purchases made pig prices run strongly. Some farmers are waiting and seeing, while some are clearing inventory [20]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply - side fundamentals have limited room for improvement. The spot price is still weak in the short term. Consider shorting on rebounds, and there is no value in going long in the far - end contracts [21].