五矿期货早报|有色金属：有色金属日报2026-3-30-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to show a downward trend in oscillation. The aluminum price is expected to rise in the short - term. The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to rise in oscillation. The lead price may decline further. The zinc price has entered a downward trend and may decline further after a wide - range consolidation. The tin price is expected to be weak. The nickel price is expected to weaken in the short - term but has strong support at the bottom in the medium - term. The price of lithium carbonate is affected by resource - side issues, and the future trend needs further observation. The price of alumina is recommended to be observed. The stainless - steel market is expected to remain strong in the short - term [3][6][9][13][14][16][19][22][25][29] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Information - On Friday, the LME 3M copper contract closed up 0.17% at $12,141 per ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 95,490 yuan per ton. The LME inventory increased by 425 to 360,250 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio increased. The domestic SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 52,000 to 359,000 tons, and the daily warrant continued to decrease by 9,000 to 237,000 tons. The spot discount in East China slightly narrowed to 95 yuan per ton, and the spot premium in Guangdong rose to 100 yuan per ton. The domestic copper spot import profit was about 100 yuan per ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 790 yuan per ton, widening compared to the previous period [2] Strategy Viewpoint - The repeated Middle - East situation suppresses the copper price on the sentiment side. The tight supply of copper ore remains, and the domestic inventory is desirably reduced after the copper price decline. The supply and substitution of scrap copper are reduced, and the short - term inventory is expected to continue to decline, providing support for the copper price. Overall, the copper price may show a downward trend in oscillation. The operating range of the SHFE copper main contract is expected to be 94,000 - 97,000 yuan per ton, and that of the LME 3M copper is 11,900 - 12,400 US dollars per ton [3] Aluminum Market Information - The repeated Middle - East situation pushed up the crude - oil price, and the rising energy cost pushed up the aluminum price. On Friday, the LME 3M aluminum contract closed up 0.92% at $3,284 per ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,085 yuan per ton. The position of the SHFE weighted aluminum contract decreased by 2,000 to 556,000 lots, and the futures warrant increased by 3,000 to 408,000 tons. The inventory of aluminum ingots in three places slightly increased, and the inventory of aluminum rods decreased. The processing fee of aluminum rods on Friday decreased, and the trading atmosphere was average. The spot discount of aluminum ingots in East China narrowed to 90 yuan per ton, and the buying sentiment was relatively positive. The LME inventory decreased by 2,000 to 421,000 tons, the cancellation warrant ratio declined, and the Cash/3M premium rose to $61.2 per ton [4] Strategy Viewpoint - The negotiation between the US and Iran continues, and the military action persists. The crude - oil price remains strong, and the market risk preference is still under pressure. The aluminum price is supported by energy costs and supply disturbances on the one hand and suppressed by sentiment on the other hand. Overseas aluminum - plant maintenance and production cuts will bring substantial production reduction, and the attacks on aluminum plants in the UAE and Bahrain over the weekend increased supply concerns. The overseas aluminum supply is expected to remain tight. The domestic downstream operating rate continues to increase, and the processing fee of aluminum rods returns to a relatively normal level, which helps inventory digestion. The aluminum price is expected to rise in the short - term. The operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to be 23,800 - 24,800 yuan per ton, and that of the LME 3M aluminum is 3,220 - 3,400 US dollars per ton [5][6] Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - On Friday, the price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded. The main AD2605 contract closed up 0.88% at 22,960 yuan per ton (as of 3 pm). The weighted contract position increased to 16,800 lots, and the trading volume was 10,600 lots. The trading volume increased, and the warrant decreased by 2,400 to 36,700 tons. The price difference between the AL2605 contract and the AD2605 contract was 975 yuan per ton, slightly widening compared to the previous period. The average price of ADC12 in the domestic mainstream area increased, and the import price of ADC12 rose by 100 yuan per ton. The downstream procurement enthusiasm was good. The SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 7,900 to 45,800 tons, and the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots in three places slightly increased to 31,300 tons [8] Strategy Viewpoint - The cost - side price of cast aluminum alloy has recovered. The demand is expected to continue to improve with the resumption of work and production downstream. Coupled with supply - side disturbances and tight raw - material supply, the price is expected to rise in oscillation in the short - term [9] Lead Market Information - Last Friday, the SHFE lead index closed up 0.57% at 16,553 yuan per ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 113,100 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, the LME 3S lead rose 6.5 to $1,907.5 per ton compared to the previous day, and the total position was 177,100 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,325 yuan per ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,325 yuan per ton. The refined - scrap price difference was at par. The average price of waste electric - vehicle batteries was 9,775 yuan per ton. The SHFE lead - ingot futures inventory was 52,500 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 150 yuan per ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 40 yuan per ton. The LME lead - ingot inventory was 283,100 tons, and the LME lead - ingot cancellation warrant was 14,300 tons. The foreign - market cash - 3S contract basis was - 34.62 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference was - 135 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the SHFE - LME price ratio was 1.256, and the lead - ingot import profit and loss was 591.16 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on March 26 was 57,600 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons compared to March 23 [11] Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of lead concentrate has increased, and the production of primary smelting has remained stable. The visible inventory of lead waste has increased, and the production of recycled lead has recovered. The inventories of primary and recycled lead - ingot factories have decreased, and the social inventory of lead ingots has also decreased. The downstream battery enterprises stock up at low prices, and the low operating rate of recycled - smelting enterprises provides short - term support for the spot market. However, the current high SHFE - LME price ratio leads to an increase in imported lead ingots and a decrease in exported batteries. The high oil price has triggered a recession narrative, and the non - ferrous metal sector is under pressure as a whole. There is a possibility that the lead price will decline further [12][13] Zinc Market Information - Last Friday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 1.33% at 23,377 yuan per ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 177,500 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, the LME 3S zinc rose 33.5 to $3,105.5 per ton compared to the previous day, and the total position was 210,400 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 23,210 yuan per ton. The basis in Shanghai was - 60 yuan per ton, the basis in Tianjin was - 90 yuan per ton, the basis in Guangdong was - 30 yuan per ton, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong was - 30 yuan per ton. The SHFE zinc - ingot futures inventory was 95,800 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 60 yuan per ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 45 yuan per ton. The LME zinc - ingot inventory was 115,700 tons, and the LME zinc - ingot cancellation warrant was 5,700 tons. The foreign - market cash - 3S contract basis was - 16.14 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference was 64.55 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the SHFE - LME price ratio was 1.09, and the zinc - ingot import profit and loss was - 2,327.99 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on March 26 was 214,400 tons, a decrease of 5,100 tons compared to March 23. After the continuous decline of SHFE zinc, the downstream actively replenished inventory at low prices [14] Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of zinc concentrate has decreased marginally, the import TC of zinc concentrate has continued to decline, and the domestic TC has stopped falling and stabilized. There was a large - scale delivery of LME zinc again, and the structural risk has been further reduced. After the zinc price declined, the downstream replenished inventory to a certain extent, and the zinc price stopped falling and stabilized in the short - term. However, the basis and monthly price difference of SHFE zinc have not increased significantly, and the sustainability of subsequent purchases is expected to be limited. The current high oil price has triggered a recession narrative, and the market is discussing the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates this year. The non - ferrous metal sector is under pressure as a whole. The zinc price has entered a downward trend and may decline further after a wide - range consolidation at the current price level [14] Tin Market Information - On March 27, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 362,460 yuan per ton, a 3.71% increase from the previous day. On the supply side, with the resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival and the Lantern Festival, the operating rates of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have rebounded from the holiday low, and the industry's production activities have entered a moderate recovery stage. The resumption of production in Yunnan is relatively faster, and the improvement in the operating rate is more obvious. Although there is also a recovery in Jiangxi, the recovery amplitude is relatively limited, and the overall recovery slope is relatively gentle. On the demand side, affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February, the downstream consumption significantly shrank. In March, the improvement in actual terminal purchases is still relatively limited, and there has not been a substantial recovery. Last week, the tin price dropped significantly, and downstream enterprises actively replenished inventory, driving the inventory to significantly decrease. As of March 20, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 11,035 tons, a decrease of 2,770 tons compared to the previous period [15] Strategy Viewpoint - Although the tin supply has improved marginally compared to before the Spring Festival, it is still constrained by the tight raw - material supply. Under the pressure on both the ore and recycled - material sides, the release of smelting - end production capacity is slow, and the short - term supply increase is expected to be limited. The demand has improved marginally, and the short - term consumption maintains a weak recovery pattern. The downstream enterprises' inventory replenishment at low prices provides short - term support for the tin price. However, considering the continuous geopolitical disturbances and the significant decline in the US interest - rate cut expectation, the global risk assets are under pressure as a whole. It is expected that the tin price will be weak. The operating range of the domestic main contract is expected to be 320,000 - 390,000 yuan per ton, and that of the overseas LME tin is 41,000 - 49,000 US dollars per ton [16] Nickel Market Information - On March 27, the SHFE nickel main contract closed at 137,100 yuan per ton, a 0.91% increase from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand were weakly stable. The average premium and discount of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was - 200 yuan per ton, a decrease of 50 yuan per ton compared to the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 5,400 yuan per ton, a decrease of 750 yuan per ton compared to the previous day. On the cost side, the ex - factory price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic - trade laterite nickel ore was reported at $71.64 per wet ton, with the price remaining unchanged from the previous day. The ex - factory price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic - trade laterite nickel ore was reported at $32.5 per wet ton, with the price remaining unchanged from the previous day. The price of ferronickel slightly decreased. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,083 yuan per nickel point, remaining unchanged from the previous day [18] Strategy Viewpoint - In the short - term, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to an increase in the long - term US inflation expectation, and risk assets are under pressure as a whole. It is expected that the nickel price will also weaken. However, in the medium - term, the improvement trend of the global nickel - element supply - demand situation is certain, and the nickel price has strong support at the bottom, with limited downward space. Short - selling is not recommended. The operating range of the SHFE nickel price this week is expected to be 130,000 - 160,000 yuan per ton, and that of the LME 3M nickel contract is 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars per ton. In terms of operation, it is recommended to sell high and buy low and mainly conduct range operations [19] Lithium Carbonate Market Information - On March 27, the evening quotation of the Wuganglian lithium - carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 159,916 yuan, a 2.35% increase from the previous working day and a 10.35% increase within the week. The MMLC battery - grade lithium - carbonate quotation was 156,000 - 164,700 yuan, and the average price increased by 3,700 yuan (+2.36%) compared to the previous working day. The industrial - grade lithium - carbonate quotation was 153,000 - 161,500 yuan, and the average price increased by 2.28% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 168,440 yuan, a 7.15% increase from the previous closing price and a 17.09% increase within the week. The average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,250 yuan. The CIF quotation of SMM Australian - imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 2,150 - 2,320 US dollars per ton, and the average price increased by 1.13% compared to the previous day and 7.71% within the week [21] Strategy Viewpoint - Recently, the contradiction in the lithium - carbonate market is concentrated on the resource side. The short - term pressure of domestic lithium - salt spot shortage has been slightly alleviated, but there are disturbances in major resource - producing areas such as Jiangxi, Zimbabwe, and Australia, and long - term concerns have increased. The growth momentum of domestic lithium - carbonate production remains unchanged, and the weekly inventory increase is the highest since August last year. However, whether the de - stocking trend has been completely reversed still needs to be observed. On the ore side, if the resumption of lithium - ore production in Jiangxi is postponed, the negotiation on the Zimbabwean mineral - export ban fails, and Australia reduces production due to energy - supply problems, the sustainability of domestic lithium - salt supply will be under pressure. The lithium - battery demand is expected to remain strong. Multiple new car models will be launched in the second quarter, and the overdraft effect of electric - vehicle sales may be alleviated. There are expectations of new orders for commercial vehicles and household energy storage. In the future