黑色建材日报-20260330

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current steel fundamentals are still in a "weak balance" state, with marginal improvement in demand and gradual inventory reduction, but no strong trend - driving force has been formed. For iron ore, the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market is affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector and cost - related issues. For coking coal and coke, the short - term price rebound lacks sufficient fundamental support, and the long - term outlook for coking coal is optimistic. For industrial silicon, the price is expected to fluctuate, and for polysilicon, the price is expected to continue to search for the bottom. For glass and soda ash, both are expected to show a narrow - range shock pattern [2][5][10][14][17][20][23][25] Summary by Directory Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,124 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.12%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 83,113 tons, a net increase of 1,525 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.0762 million lots, a net decrease of 91,050 lots. The spot market prices in Tianjin and Shanghai remained unchanged. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,299 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 539,561 tons, a net increase of 5,882 tons. The position of the main contract was 919,500 lots, a net decrease of 42,727 lots. The spot price in Lecong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai remained unchanged [1] Strategy Viewpoints - The new construction starts still showed a large decline in the context of the low base in the same period last year, indicating that the recovery momentum of the real - estate investment side is still insufficient. The short - term support from real estate for steel demand is limited, and the terminal demand is likely to remain weak. The demand for hot - rolled coils has recovered rapidly, production has increased slightly, and inventory has entered the destocking stage. Rebar shows both supply and demand growth, with a slight reduction in inventory, presenting a neutral overall performance [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 812.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.61% (-5.00), and the position changed by -20,782 lots to 387,200 lots. The weighted position was 900,800 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 786 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 22.85 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 2.74% [4] Strategy Viewpoints - On the supply side, the overseas ore shipments continued to rise. Australian shipments increased to a relatively high level, while Brazilian shipments declined slightly, and shipments from non - mainstream countries remained stable. The near - end arrivals increased month - on - month. On the demand side, the average daily hot - metal output increased by 29,400 tons to 231,090 tons. The blast furnaces that were shut down for maintenance due to production restrictions have basically resumed normal production, and the hot - metal output is expected to continue to rise. The steel mills' profitability continued to improve slightly. In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to decline from a high level, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased from a low level. Overall, the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On March 27, the main manganese silicon contract (SM605) closed up 2.27% at 6,580 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6,350 yuan/ton, with a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the futures. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF605) closed up 0.50% at 6,012 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 6,050 yuan/ton, with a premium of 38 yuan/ton to the futures. Last week, the manganese silicon price fluctuated at a high level, reaching a new high of over 6,700 yuan/ton during the week, and then declined, with a weekly increase of 184 yuan/ton or +2.87%. The ferrosilicon price rose at the beginning of the week and then fluctuated downward, with a weekly increase of 96 yuan/ton or +1.61% [7][8] Strategy Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation continues to affect the market. The black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds that previously long - held non - ferrous metals and short - held black metals. The "energy substitution" property of coal may support the price of alloys. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, but most factors have been priced in. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are good. The future market for both is affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector and cost - related issues [9][10] Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On March 27, the main coking coal contract (JM2605) closed down 0.89% at 1,219.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of coking coal in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia had different premiums to the futures. The main coke contract (J2605) closed down 0.51% at 1,752.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices of coke in Rizhao Port and Lvliang also had different premiums or discounts to the futures. Last week, the coking coal price rose sharply at the beginning of the week and then fluctuated at a high level, with a weekly increase of 64 yuan/ton or +5.29%. The coke price followed the coking coal price up at the beginning of the week and then declined, with a weekly increase of 24.5 yuan/ton or +1.39% [12][13] Strategy Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation continues to affect the market. The black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The "energy substitution" property of coal may support the coal price. In terms of the varieties themselves, the short - term supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is still relatively loose. There is not enough fundamental support for a sharp price rebound in the short term. It is recommended to take short - term long - side operations or wait and see in the short term, and be optimistic about the coking coal price in the medium - to - long term [14] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - For industrial silicon, the main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,625 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of -1.26% (-110). The weighted contract position changed by -1,903 lots to 368,620 lots. The spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon in East China remained unchanged. For polysilicon, the main contract (PS2605) closed at 35,680 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of +0.39% (+140). The weighted contract position changed by +1,047 lots to 52,531 lots. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon remained unchanged [16][18] Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate. The supply is stable, and the demand is weak, with insufficient improvement in demand to drive prices. Polysilicon continues to be in a negative - feedback adjustment state, with high inventory and weak downstream demand. The price is expected to continue to search for the bottom [17][20] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - For glass, the main contract closed at 1,036 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.99% (-21). The spot prices in North China and Central China remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 814,000 boxes (-1.09%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 32,418 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 45,523 lots. For soda ash, the main contract closed at 1,225 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.53% (-19). The spot price in Shahe remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 190,000 tons (-1.09%), with an increase in heavy - soda ash inventory and a decrease in light - soda ash inventory. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 12,455 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 26,503 lots [22][24] Strategy Viewpoints - The glass market performed poorly last week. The spot trading was light, and the terminal demand recovery was less than expected. The market is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, with the main contract reference range of 1,015 - 1,050 yuan/ton. The soda ash market is in a game between short - term supply tightening and weak demand, with prices showing a narrow - range adjustment. The main contract reference range is 1,200 - 1,250 yuan/ton [23][25]