南华期货棉花2026年?季度展望：供应变数加?，消费韧性?撑

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1 2026, the domestic and international cotton markets showed a significant divergence. Zhengzhou cotton reached above 15,000 yuan/ton due to rapid inventory reduction this year and the expectation of reduced planting area next year, but was constrained by the strengthening of the internal - external price difference. U.S. cotton had a slow signing progress under the influence of tariffs and competition from Brazilian cotton exports, with prices running weakly. Later, as U.S. foreign trade relations eased, U.S. cotton export data improved, and there was also an expectation of reduced production in the new year, leading to a significant increase in the price center [1][38]. - In Q2, with the continuous effectiveness of domestic policies to expand domestic demand, terminal textile and clothing consumption is expected to maintain steady growth. The replenishment demand in the foreign sales market is gradually being released, and China's textile and clothing exports are expected to maintain a year - on - year growth trend. The center of U.S. cotton is expected to rise, and the suppression of Zhengzhou cotton by the internal - external price difference may weaken. Cotton prices still have an upward basis, but the issuance of domestic quotas will alleviate the supply shortage to some extent. The expected reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area may be relatively limited, and macro risks are increasing, narrowing the upward space for cotton prices [1][38][39]. - The predicted range for Zhengzhou cotton is around 14,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chapter 2: Market Review - In Q1 2026, Zhengzhou cotton and U.S. cotton prices showed obvious divergence. Zhengzhou cotton was driven by multiple factors at the beginning of the year and broke through the 15,000 - yuan mark, but then maintained high - level oscillations. In March, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increased the cost of cotton and boosted demand, providing support for Zhengzhou cotton [4]. - U.S. cotton prices were generally weak in Q1. Under the influence of tariffs and Brazilian cotton competition, the signing progress was slow. In February, export data improved, and the price center rose significantly. However, the U.S. cotton price was still under pressure due to concerns about the U.S. economy [8]. 3.2 Chapter 3: Core Concerns 3.2.1 New - season Policy Not Yet Issued, with a Strong Expectation of Area Reduction - Since 2017, the cotton target price subsidy policy has been adjusted every three years. As of March 12, 2026, the cumulative notarized inspection volume of national cotton in the 2025/26 season reached 752.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 79.78 million tons. The new - season subsidy policy for 2026 has not been issued, and there is a clear expectation of a reduction in Xinjiang's cotton area, but the actual reduction may be less than expected [10]. - According to a survey in early March, the intended national cotton planting area in 2026 is 46.249 million mu, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%, and the intended area in Xinjiang is 42.75 million mu, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% [10]. 3.2.2 High Internal - External Price Difference, and the Issuance of Quotas - From January to February 2026, China's cotton and cotton yarn imports increased significantly. The National Development and Reform Commission issued 894,000 tons of 1% tariff import quotas at the beginning of the year, and the internal - external cotton price difference was high. On March 16, the policy of issuing additional cotton import quotas was implemented, with a total of 300,000 tons of sliding - scale duty processing trade quotas [15]. - In Q2, although the internal - external price difference has narrowed after the issuance of quotas, it is still at a high level in history. The price advantage of imported cotton and cotton yarn still exists, and the import volume is expected to increase compared with last year. However, the uncertainty of U.S. global tariff policies is still high [15]. 3.2.3 Strong Demand, Focus on Macroeconomic Policy Adjustment - From January to February 2026, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textile products in China were 283.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. In Q1, although the immediate profits of domestic spinning mills were squeezed, the overall consumption performance was strong. In Q2, domestic terminal textile and clothing consumption is expected to maintain steady growth, and the order - receiving rhythm of downstream factories and the profit repair of spinning mills will be the focus of the market [20]. - From January to February 2026, China's textile and clothing export volume was 50.446 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.65%. U.S. foreign trade relations have eased, and the replenishment demand in the U.S. market is gradually being released. In Q2, China's textile and clothing exports are expected to maintain a year - on - year growth trend, but the uncertainty of U.S. foreign trade policies is still high [23]. 3.2.4 Improved Export Demand for U.S. Cotton, but New - season Planting Still Faces Challenges - As of March 12, 2026, the cumulative net signing of U.S. cotton exports for the 25/26 season was 2.189 million tons, reaching 83.77% of the expected annual export volume. In Q2, with the seasonal slowdown of Brazilian cotton exports, the procurement demand of textile countries may shift to U.S. cotton, and China's issuance of additional quotas is expected to marginally improve the signing demand for U.S. cotton [28]. - The USDA predicts that the U.S. cotton planting area in the 26/27 season will increase by 1.3% year - on - year to 57.06 million mu, but the drought in the main producing areas is still severe, and the abandonment rate may rise to 18.8%, with an estimated output of 2.96 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [30]. 3.2.5 Global New - season Output is the Key - The USDA expects the global cotton output in the 25/26 season to be 26.343 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 533,000 tons, and the consumption to be 25.817 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 79,000 tons. The期末 inventory is expected to be 16.631 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 573,000 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will rise slightly to 64% [35]. - Brazil's new - season cotton planting area is expected to decrease by 3.5% year - on - year, and the output is expected to decrease by 281,000 tons to 3.795 million tons. Australia's cotton output is expected to be 1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17%. The market also expects a reduction in the output of China and the United States. The USDA predicts that the global cotton output in the 26/27 season may drop to 25.26 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will drop to 59.3% [35]. - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have affected the global fertilizer supply chain, increasing the cotton planting cost and affecting the planting willingness and yield of farmers in major cotton - producing countries [35]. 3.3 Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook - In Q1, the domestic and international cotton markets showed a significant divergence. In Q2, domestic terminal textile and clothing consumption is expected to maintain steady growth, and the export of textile and clothing is expected to maintain a year - on - year growth trend. The center of U.S. cotton is expected to rise, and Zhengzhou cotton prices still have an upward basis, but the upward space may be narrowed [38][39].