供给端仍存变数，碳酸锂中枢逐步上移：2026商品二季度报告碳酸锂

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2 2026, lithium carbonate will maintain a tight - balance pattern due to limited supply - side elasticity and total inventory below 100,000 tons. The demand growth rate is significantly higher than the supply growth rate, and prices are likely to rise rather than fall. The recommended strategy is to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to overseas lithium ore policies and Australian ore shipping conditions [2][109]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of lithium carbonate showed a wide - range volatile trend. As of March 26, the LC2605 contract closed at 157,200 yuan/ton, up 20.94% from the beginning of the year. Battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 157,000 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 153,000 yuan/ton, up 29% and 28% respectively from the beginning of the year [6]. - In Q1 2026, lithium carbonate maintained a tight - balance pattern. Off - season inventory reduction exceeded market expectations, providing some support for prices. The macro - environment was poor, and geopolitical conflicts led to insufficient market liquidity. The precious metals and non - ferrous sectors saw significant capital outflows, and lithium carbonate was significantly affected and under pressure [6]. 3.2 Demand Side of Lithium Carbonate 3.2.1 New Energy Vehicle Market - In January 2026, global new energy vehicle sales reached 1.34 million, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.1%, with a penetration rate of 19.8%. The cumulative sales in the first two months were 2.2 million, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. The sales in the three major markets of China, Europe, and North America all declined year - on - year, while the sales in other markets increased year - on - year [10]. - In February 2026, European new energy vehicle sales reached 287,000, a year - on - year increase of 21%. The cumulative sales in January - February were 576,000, a year - on - year increase of 20.2%. With policy incentives, Europe is the core incremental source of the global new energy vehicle market [11]. - In February 2026, US new energy vehicle sales were 88,000, a year - on - year decrease of 18%. The cumulative sales in January - February were 174,000, a year - on - year decrease of 22%. The subsidy withdrawal has a negative impact on the market, which is the core drag on the growth of global power battery demand [16]. - In February 2026, China's new energy vehicle exports were 282,000, a month - on - month decrease of 6.6% and a year - on - year increase of 1.1 times. The cumulative exports in the first two months were 583,000, a year - on - year increase of 1.1 times. The export performance was better than expected, and the high oil price will further promote the penetration of new energy vehicles in emerging markets [17]. - In 2026, China's new energy vehicle market still dominates the global market. The production and sales in January - February were 1.735 million and 1.71 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8% and 6.9%. The new energy vehicle sales accounted for 41.2% of the total vehicle sales. The sales of plug - in hybrid vehicles declined significantly. The export market continued to drive growth, and the market is expected to gradually recover [21]. 3.2.2 Energy Storage Market - In January - February 2026, the global new energy storage installed capacity was estimated to be 400 - 455GWh, a year - on - year increase of 40% - 62%, and the cumulative installed capacity exceeded 1.2TWh, with China accounting for more than 50%. The market shows the characteristics of "explosive demand, regional differentiation, and structural optimization" [27]. - In China, the new energy storage industry continued to grow rapidly. In January - February 2026, the new installed capacity was 9.51GW/24.18GWh, a year - on - year increase of 182.07%/472.06%. The price of energy storage procurement increased, and the industry is moving towards quality and efficiency [29]. - In the US, the new installed capacity in Q1 2026 was about 15 - 18GWh, a year - on - year increase of about 25%. The market will continue to grow steadily in Q2, with an expected installed capacity of 20 - 22GWh, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [34]. - In Europe, the new energy storage market had a "boom" in Q1 2026, with new installed capacity of about 12 - 15GWh, a year - on - year increase of more than 50%. The market is expected to continue to grow in Q2, with a year - on - year increase of 45% - 60% [35]. - In emerging markets, the new installed capacity in Q1 2026 was about 8 - 10GWh, a year - on - year increase of more than 80%. The market is expected to continue to grow explosively in Q2, with an installed capacity of 12 - 15GWh, a year - on - year increase of 75% - 90% [36]. 3.2.3 Battery Market - In 2025, China's lithium - battery shipments were 1,875GWh, a year - on - year increase of 53%. The shipments of power and energy - storage batteries were 1.1TWh and 630GWh respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41% and 85% [40]. - In January - February 2026, the cumulative production of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 309.7GWh, a year - on - year increase of 48.8%. The cumulative sales were 262.0GWh, a year - on - year increase of 53.8%. The energy - storage battery industry has high growth in profitability, with a significant increase in gross profit margin [41]. 3.2.4 Cathode Materials - In 2025, China's cathode material shipments were 5.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 50%. The shipments of lithium iron phosphate materials were 3.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 58% [46]. - In Q1 2026, the lithium iron phosphate market was strong, driven by energy - storage and new - energy commercial vehicle demand. The profitability of integrated enterprises improved, and the supply of high - density lithium iron products may be in short supply in Q2 [47]. - In Q1 2026, the ternary material market was weak, with insufficient demand support. In Q2, with the recovery of the new - energy vehicle market, the demand for ternary materials is expected to improve, but the long - term oversupply pattern is difficult to reverse [57]. - In January - February 2026, the domestic production of lithium manganate was 38,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.3%. The production of lithium cobaltate was 19,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.6%. In Q2, with the arrival of the peak season for 3C consumer electronics, the demand is expected to recover [69]. 3.3 Supply Side of Lithium Carbonate 3.3.1 Lithium Ore Supply - In Q4 2025, the production of Australian mainstream mines increased year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. However, due to geopolitical conflicts, energy shortages may lead to production suspension. In February 2026, Zimbabwe suspended lithium ore exports, which is expected to cause a significant decline in African lithium ore imports in Q2 [80]. - In Q1 2026, South American salt lakes continued to increase production, but the growth rate slowed down. Argentina was the main incremental source. New domestic lithium ore projects were put into production, and the supply of lithium ore in China is expected to be about 100,000 tons of LCE in 2026. The total capacity of domestic salt - lake lithium extraction is expected to reach 350,000 - 400,000 tons of LCE/year by the end of 2026 [81][82]. 3.3.2 Lithium Carbonate Supply - In terms of new capacity, in 2026, there will be 70,000 tons of new capacity, mainly concentrated at the end of the year. The pace of capacity expansion has slowed down [86]. - From January to February 2026, the cumulative production of domestic lithium carbonate was 179,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 42%. The production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lakes, and recycling increased by 59%, - 7%, 50%, and 48% respectively [87]. 3.3.3 Cost and Profit - As of March 26, the average production cost of lithium carbonate was 123,096 yuan/ton, and the industry profit was 28,167 yuan/ton. The cost mainly comes from raw material procurement. In Q1, lithium ore prices continued to rise, and the profit of enterprises with their own mines and salt - lake production was more elastic [91]. 3.4 Import, Export, and Inventory 3.4.1 Import and Export - In January - February 2026, China's cumulative imports of lithium carbonate were 53,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 64% [102]. 3.4.2 Inventory - As of March 26, the sample inventory of lithium carbonate was 99,489 tons, a decrease of 10,116 tons from the beginning of the year. The total inventory continued to decline in Q1, indicating strong downstream demand. In Q2, battery and material factories have new capacity coming online and will have restocking demand [105].