2026年4月宏观季刊：中东地缘风险上升，全球宏观承压

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - In Q1 2026, the Middle East geopolitical crisis that broke out at the end of February was a black - swan event, causing a severe impact on the global macro - economy. It led to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a sharp rise in oil prices, and significant imported inflation pressure in developed economies. Central banks were forced to re - evaluate their monetary policies, leading to tightened global liquidity, which in turn inhibited corporate investment and household consumption, and dragged down global trade and supply chains. Developed economies faced a significant risk of slowdown, and global economic activities were under pressure [1][7][66]. - In Q1 2026, China's domestic macro - economic indicators showed resilience. Exports had strong resilience, while consumption and investment growth were slow. The manufacturing PMI fell below the boom - bust line, inflation recovered moderately but remained weak overall. Social financing data was strong due to policy efforts in Q1, but there was a structural differentiation in new credit between enterprises and residents. The central bank's monetary policy was more inclined to structural easing, and the possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term was low, but the general tone of moderate easing remained, and there was still a possibility of an interest rate cut in the future [2][27][67]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 International Macro 3.1.1 United States - Since 2026, the inflation expectation index in the US has weakened, and the consumer confidence index has declined to a relatively low historical quantile level in the past three years. The ISM manufacturing and service PMI have been in an expansion state, but after the US - Iran war, the inflation upward pressure has emerged. In February, the CPI and core CPI data showed a slow - down in price increases, but the recent rise in oil prices may increase the cost of living for US residents. The market has started to unwind long positions in US Treasury futures and is pricing in the possibility of the Fed's emergency interest rate hike. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate hike at the April 29 policy meeting is still low, but there are uncertainties due to the geopolitical situation and the change of the Fed's leadership [8][11][14]. 3.1.2 Europe - On March 19, the European Central Bank maintained the deposit rate at 2%. Due to the Middle East conflict, the policy stance has become more hawkish. The Middle East conflict has increased the uncertainty of the euro - area economic outlook, posing an upward risk to inflation and a downward pressure on economic growth. The ECB will take action if inflation worsens, and may adjust the policy stance as early as the April meeting [21][23]. 3.1.3 Japan - On March 19, the Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.75%. One member proposed an interest rate hike, and the central bank listed the Middle East conflict and oil price fluctuations as risks. Japan's economy is moderately recovering, but the inflation expectation has risen moderately. The central bank emphasized the potential impact of external risks on the inflation outlook and warned of the instability in the financial market and the sharp rise in oil prices [24]. 3.2 Domestic Macro 3.2.1 Business Index - In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a weakening of manufacturing prosperity. The production and new order indexes declined, and the employment index was weak. Large enterprises' PMI was in an expansion state, while medium - and small - sized enterprises' PMI declined. The problem of insufficient effective demand still exists, and policy support is needed [28][31]. 3.2.2 Price Index - In February, China's CPI rose to 1.3% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 1.8%. The PPI was - 0.9% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline. The increase in CPI was due to the Spring Festival effect, and the narrowing decline in PPI was driven by international commodity prices and semiconductor storage demand. After the Spring Festival, the CPI may weaken seasonally, and the PPI may turn positive due to the rise in oil prices [36]. 3.2.3 Social Financing and Credit - In the first two months of 2026, the cumulative increment of social financing scale was 9.6 trillion yuan, showing a moderate increase. The "enterprise - strong, household - weak" structural differentiation in new credit still exists. Enterprise loans increased significantly, especially long - term loans, while household loans decreased. The social financing and credit data are expected to continue to improve with the acceleration of enterprise production and the implementation of policies, but the performance of household credit needs attention [41][42]. 3.2.4 Three - Horse Carriage - From January to February, exports showed strong resilience, with a 19.2% growth. Exports to Belt and Road countries, private enterprises' exports, and exports of mechanical and electrical products all increased significantly. Consumption and investment growth were slow. The growth rate of social consumer goods retail was 2.8%, and the growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.8%. Infrastructure investment provided strong support, while real estate development investment was a major drag. Boosting domestic demand and consumption is the policy focus this year [55][57]. 3.2.5 Monetary Policy - On March 20, the central bank announced that the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively. This is in line with market expectations. The central bank is more inclined to structural policies, and the possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is low, but there is still a possibility of an interest rate cut in the future [61].