Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The apple futures main contract AP2605 showed a volatile decline last week, with a significant overall drop. As of the afternoon close on March 27, 2026, the apple 2605 contract was reported at 9967 yuan/ton, down 754 yuan/ton for the week, a decrease of 7.03%. The apple price is supported by low inventory and tight supply of high - quality goods, remaining stable with a slight upward tendency. However, the abundant supply of common goods and large pressure on sales limit the upside potential of the price. The substitution impact of alternative fruits has weakened. It is expected that the apple futures price will maintain a wide - range high - level oscillation in the short term. The market is shifting its focus to the new - season apples, and the weather during the apple flowering period from late March to April is a key variable [6][8][55]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Review (1) Futures Price - The apple futures main contract AP2605 showed a volatile decline last week, with a significant overall drop. As of the afternoon close on March 27, 2026, the apple 2605 contract was reported at 9967 yuan/ton, down 754 yuan/ton for the week, a decrease of 7.03% [6][12]. (2) Spot Price - Shandong: Some merchants in Shandong last week looked for high - quality and cost - effective goods to replenish the market. The demand from export processing decreased slightly. The remaining small fruits were limited, and some began to source 75 fruits. The enthusiasm of fruit farmers for selling common goods was not high, and the overall purchasing by merchants was dull. In Penglai, the mainstream price of 75 first - and second - grade fruit farmers' goods was around 2.8 - 3.6 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade was 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and third - grade was 1.3 - 2.5 yuan/jin. In Qixia, the price of late - Fuji 80 first - and second - grade slice - red fruit farmers' goods was 3.2 - 4.5 yuan/jin, 75 common goods was 2.2 - 2.5 yuan/jin, and 65 - 70 small fruits was about 2 yuan/jin [17]. - Shaanxi: The trading of high - quality goods in Shaanxi slowed down last week. Due to the reduction of cost - effective and suitable goods, a small number of merchants withdrew or transferred. In Yan'an, the trading mainly involved high - quality goods in the hands of fruit farmers and merchants, and the common goods of fruit farmers were not selling well. In Weinan and Xianyang, the overall sales were slow, and the remaining goods in the warehouse were mostly low - quality goods of fruit farmers, which still faced sales pressure. In Luochuan, the mainstream transaction price of 70 and above semi - commercial fruit farmers' goods was around 4.0 - 4.2 yuan/jin, 70 and above common goods was 3.7 - 4 yuan/jin, and high - grade waste was around 2 - 2.2 yuan/jin. The mainstream transaction price of 70 and above merchants' semi - commercial goods was around 4.2 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and 80 and above was 5 - 5.8 yuan/jin, priced according to quality. In Baishui, the price of 75 and above common goods of fruit farmers was 2.5 - 3.0 yuan/jin, and the price of 75 and above high - quality semi - commercial goods of merchants was 4 - 4.3 yuan/jin, priced according to quality [21]. II. Production Area Situation - On March 28, 2026, the apple trading in production areas was dull. Purchasers' enthusiasm was low, and the sales speed was slow. High - quality goods were hard to find in the western production areas, with stable prices. Common and poor - quality goods were traded through bargaining, and the market was in a mess. In Shandong, the overall sales speed was slow. Inventory holders continued to sell their own goods, and the trading volume of fruit farmers' goods was small, especially for medium - quality goods, and the market was under pressure [23]. - Shandong: In Qixia, the trading of inventory apples was slow. Purchasers' enthusiasm was low, and merchants replenished goods in small quantities as needed. The market price was stable. The price of inventory paper - bagged Fuji 80 first - and second - grade was 3.50 - 4.50 yuan/jin, the price of inventory 80 and above merchants' third - grade fruit was 1.80 - 2.40 yuan/jin, and the price of inventory Fuji 75 first - and second - grade was about 2.80 yuan/jin. In Yiyuan, the trading of inventory Fuji was weak. There were not many inquiring merchants in the cold storage, and the sales volume was limited. The market price was stable but weak. The price of inventory paper - bagged late - Fuji high - quality common goods of 75 and above was 2.20 - 2.30 yuan/jin, and that of general common goods was 1.60 - 2.00 yuan/jin [23]. - Shaanxi: In Luochuan, the trading of inventory Fuji was generally stable. Downstream traders followed the market, and the trading volume was average, with little price change. The current transaction price of inventory paper - bagged late - Fuji 70 and above semi - commercial goods was 4.20 - 4.40 yuan/jin, and the price of 70 and above common goods was 3.50 - 3.70 yuan/jin. In Weinan, the overall sales speed of inventory Fuji was slow. Affected by the quality of goods, the price was a bit chaotic, and transactions were mainly based on quality. The current price of inventory paper - bagged Fuji 75 and above high - quality common goods was 2.20 - 2.80 yuan/jin [24]. - Shanxi: In Yuncheng Linyi, the trading of inventory Fuji was light. Market merchants continued to select paper - plus - film goods for purchase, and the sales speed was slow, with stable prices. The current price of inventory film - bagged late - Fuji 75 and above was about 1.50 yuan/jin, and the price of paper - plus - film late - Fuji 80 and above was 2.00 - 2.50 yuan/jin [24]. - Gansu: In Jingning, there were not many remaining inventory Fuji. The trading of fruit farmers' goods was basically coming to an end, and transactions were based on quality. The current price of inventory paper - bagged late - Fuji 75 and above fruit farmers' commercial goods in Renda Town was 5.00 - 5.50 yuan/jin, and the price of common goods was 4.00 - 4.60 yuan/jin [24]. III. Inventory Situation - The peak cold - storage entry volume of late - Fuji this season was 7.6675 million tons, the lowest in the past five years. As of March 25, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas nationwide was 4.4179 million tons, a decrease of 266,400 tons compared with last week, and the sales speed slowed down slightly [32]. - Shandong: The storage capacity ratio last week was 37.01%, a decrease of 1.38% compared with last week. Some merchants looked for high - quality and cost - effective goods to replenish the market, and the demand from export processing decreased slightly. The remaining small fruits were limited, and some began to source 75 fruits. The enthusiasm of fruit farmers for selling common goods was not high, and the overall purchasing by merchants was dull [32]. - Shaanxi: The storage capacity ratio last week was 33.68%, a decrease of 2.57% compared with last week. The trading of high - quality goods slowed down. Due to the reduction of cost - effective and suitable goods, a small number of merchants withdrew or transferred. In Yan'an, the trading mainly involved high - quality goods in the hands of fruit farmers and merchants, and the common goods of fruit farmers were not selling well. In Weinan and Xianyang, the overall sales were slow, and the remaining goods in the warehouse were mostly low - quality goods of fruit farmers, which still faced sales pressure [32]. - Other Areas: The storage capacity ratio of Gansu last week was 22.66%, a decrease of 1.82% compared with last week. The trading slowed down. Merchants purchased a small amount of high - quality goods as needed, and fruit farmers' goods were gradually cleared from the warehouse, leaving a small amount of low - quality goods. The storage capacity ratio of Shanxi was 22.76%, a decrease of 1.62% compared with last week. There were not many merchants in the cold storage, and they began to look for paper - plus - film goods, with average overall transactions. The storage capacity ratio of Liaoning was 38.72%, a decrease of 2.94% compared with last week. Merchants actively replenished goods, mainly looking for common goods of fruit farmers, and a small amount of high - quality goods were traded [32][33]. IV. Sales Area Situation - The number of early - morning arrival vehicles at the Guangdong wholesale market last week increased slightly compared with the previous week. Actual transactions were priced according to quality. The current arrival volume of vehicles in the market is at a normal level, and there is no obvious backlog in the transfer warehouse. The willingness of second - and third - level wholesalers to purchase is not high, and the recent market sales are slow, with chaotic selling prices [37]. V. Apple Storage Profit Analysis - The profit of 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants in Qixia last week was about 0.35 yuan/jin, the same as the previous week [42]. VI. Key Fruit Market - As of the 13th week of 2026, the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.86 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg compared with the 12th week. The prices of the six kinds of fruits fluctuated last week. The average wholesale prices of apples and Kyoho grapes increased by 0.04 yuan/kg and 0.33 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 12th week. The average wholesale prices of bananas, pineapples, watermelons, and pears decreased by 0.05 yuan/kg, 0.30 yuan/kg, 0.17 yuan/kg, and 0.01 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 12th week. The average wholesale price of Fuji apples increased compared with last week [46]. VII. Export Situation - According to customs data, the export volume of fresh apples in February 2026 was about 79,100 tons, a decrease of 20.831% compared with the previous month and an increase of 15.91% compared with the same period last year. Seasonally, the fourth quarter and the first quarter of the following year are the peak export seasons for apples. It is expected that the export volume of fresh apples in the first quarter of 2026 will increase compared with the previous quarter [50]. VIII. Production Statistics - In 2025, the domestic apple production was 34.3142 million tons, a decrease of 6.01% compared with last year. The production in Shaanxi was 7.6006 million tons, a decrease of 6.97% compared with 2024; in Shandong, it was 7.246 million tons, a decrease of 16.54%; in Gansu, it was 3.5457 million tons, a decrease of 4.45%; in Henan, it was 2.469 million tons, an increase of 9%; in Shanxi, it was 3.045 million tons, an increase of 11%; in Liaoning, it was 2.1561 million tons, an increase of 3%; and in other areas, it was 8.2518 million tons, a decrease of 6.68% [50][53]. IX. Market Outlook - The apple futures main contract showed a volatile decline last week, with a significant overall drop. From the fundamental perspective, the trading in apple production areas last week slowed down slightly compared with the previous week, and the atmosphere for Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking was average. In terms of production - area transactions, there were limited high - quality goods in the western production areas, and most high - quality goods were in the hands of merchants. The common goods of fruit farmers were not selling well. In Shandong, the export slowed down slightly, and merchants preferred to purchase high - quality goods. In terms of price, the price of high - quality goods remained stable and firm, and the price of common and lower - quality goods was mainly stable. In the sales areas, the overall sales atmosphere was not strong, and second - and third - level wholesalers mainly purchased as needed, with average sales. Overall, the low inventory and tight supply of high - quality goods provide strong support for the apple price, and the apple price is stable with a slight upward tendency. However, due to the abundant supply of common goods and large sales pressure, some fruit farmers even sold at reduced prices, which limited the upside potential of the apple price. In terms of alternative fruits, the supply of pears and citrus fruits gradually decreased after mid - March, and summer seasonal fruits have not been on the market in large quantities, so the substitution impact on apples has weakened. Currently, the market sales are slow, and the atmosphere for Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking is generally average. There are different views on the market after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. Due to the real support of the scarcity of high - quality goods and the expected stocking demand for the Tomb - Sweeping Festival and May Day holidays, the futures price has certain support after the correction. In summary, it is expected that the apple futures price will maintain a wide - range high - level oscillation in the short term. The market is shifting its focus to the new - season apples. The weather from late March to April is a key variable during the apple flowering period, and special attention should be paid to the market speculation sentiment caused by extreme weather such as "late spring cold" in the main producing areas [55][56]. X. Views and Strategies - This Week's View: The apple futures main contract may maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. - Operation Strategies: - Unilateral: Consider buying on dips. - Arbitrage: Wait and see for the time being. - Options: Wait and see for the time being [57][58].
苹果行情表现平淡，清明备货氛围一般
Hua Long Qi Huo·2026-03-30 02:56