纯碱周报：高库存与弱需求仍是主旋律-20260330

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the price of the main contract of soda ash futures first rose and then fell, with an overall weekly decline. The market is caught in a tug - of - war between supply contraction and weak demand. - The supply side shows positive changes with a significant week - on - week decline in weekly output and operating rate, which eases supply pressure and provides bottom support for prices. However, the demand side remains weak, with downstream purchases mainly for low - price and just - in - time needs. The overall shipment rate has dropped to a recent low, and the de - stocking process is hindered. - Rising raw material costs are squeezing industry profit margins. The profit of the combined - soda process has declined from its peak, and the ammonia - soda process continues to be slightly in the red. - The latest real - estate data shows a continued year - on - year decline in new construction and completion areas, suppressing long - term demand expectations. - In the short term, supply contraction provides support, but weak demand and high inventory pressure remain unresolved, limiting the upside potential of futures prices. The market may continue to fluctuate and consolidate [36]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of March 26, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 775,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 42,700 tons or 5.22%. Among them, the production of light soda ash was 368,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,100 tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 407,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,600 tons [9]. - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 81.87%, down 4.51 percentage points from the previous week. The ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 90.45%, unchanged from the previous week; the combined - production capacity utilization rate was 76.17%, down 3.81 percentage points from the previous week. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 84.47%, down 3.70 percentage points from the previous week [11]. (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of March 26, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8519 million tons, an increase of 40,300 tons or 2.22% from Monday. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 946,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 200 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 905,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,500 tons. Compared with last Thursday, it decreased by 1,900 tons or 0.10%. The inventory of light soda ash decreased by 16,500 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash increased by 14,600 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 221,900 tons or 13.61% [15]. (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - As of March 26, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 820,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.56%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 100.23%, a decrease of 9.39 percentage points from the previous week [17]. (4) Profit Analysis - As of March 26, 2026, the theoretical profit (per double - ton) of the combined - soda process for Chinese soda ash was 215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.49%. During the week, the price of raw - material mine salt was stable, while the price of thermal coal increased significantly, strengthening the cost side. The prices of soda ash and its by - product ammonium chloride were relatively stable. Therefore, with the increase in costs, the double - ton profit of the combined - soda process decreased slightly [20]. - As of March 26, 2026, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for Chinese soda ash was - 26.20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw - material sea salt remained stable, and the price of anthracite coal fluctuated and adjusted downward, with a slight increase in the cost side. The soda ash market remained stable with no significant price fluctuations. Therefore, the profit of the ammonia - soda process fluctuated downward [24]. 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Supply Side of the Float Glass Industry - As of March 26, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 144,900 tons, a decrease of 0.62% compared with the 19th. The weekly output of national float glass from March 20 - 26, 2026 was 1.0145 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.77% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.47% [26]. (2) Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of March 26, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 73.622 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 814,000 weight boxes or 1.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.86%. The inventory days were 33.6 days, a decrease of 0.1 day from the previous period [30]. 3. Market Price Analysis - The price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal increased from 731 yuan/ton to 756 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.42%. The price of well - mine salt in East China remained stable at 260 yuan/ton. - The prices of light and heavy soda ash in various regions remained unchanged. The price of float glass in China increased from 1163 yuan/ton to 1169 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.52%. The price of 2.0 - mm photovoltaic glass in China remained stable at 10 yuan/square. The price of 32% caustic soda in Jiangsu increased from 860 yuan/ton to 900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.65%. The price of dry ammonium chloride in Henan remained stable at 660 yuan/ton. The price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu decreased from 2490 yuan/ton to 2477 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.52% [35]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis and Operation Suggestions - The short - term supply contraction provides support, but weak demand and high inventory pressure remain unresolved, limiting the upside potential of futures prices. The market may continue to fluctuate and consolidate. - Operation suggestions: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading. Since supply contraction provides support but weak demand restricts the upside, one can sell high and buy low between key support and resistance levels. For arbitrage, there are no specific suggestions. For options, one can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to collect premiums and increase returns in a volatile market [36][37].