二季度大类资产展望之权益

Market Overview - In Q1 2026, the equity market faced three significant pressures: margin ratio increase in January, commodity market decline in February, and geopolitical tensions in March, leading to a general decline in market risk appetite[1] - The overall PE ratio of the Wind All A index reached 22.48 times by March 27, nearing the high points of previous bull markets[2] Q2 Outlook - The focus for Q2 is on exploring undervalued sectors, particularly in power equipment and media, with PE percentiles at 67% and 68% respectively, and PEG ratios of 0.91[2] - The agricultural and financial sectors are also highlighted, with PB percentiles below 20% and ROE above 8%, indicating strong fundamentals[2] Risk Factors - Uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical developments pose risks to market stability[3] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a continued emphasis on low-valuation styles due to high overall market valuations and a cautious risk appetite among investors[2] - The strategy includes focusing on sectors with strong growth potential, such as power equipment and media, while being wary of high-valuation sectors like defense and heavy industry[2][24] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the low PE index has consistently outperformed the high PE index since mid-January, indicating a shift towards undervalued stocks[20] - The report also emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation expectations, particularly for sectors like metals and coal, which currently have high PB ratios[28]