贵金属周报：地缘信号反复切换，贵金属依然承压-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices showed a high - level volatile trend. Tensions in the Middle East at the beginning of the week affected energy markets, causing precious metal prices to drop sharply on Monday. Trump's delay in attacking Iran led to a fall in oil prices, a decrease in inflation concerns, a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and an increase in market risk appetite, which boosted precious metal prices. Due to the frequent switching of geopolitical signals, market sentiment was cautious [2][5]. - The US submitted a 15 - point proposal to end the war to Iran via Pakistan. Iran rejected the proposal and put forward clear pre - conditions. Trump postponed the strike on Iran's energy facilities by ten days, with the deadline extended to April 6. The Pentagon is planning a "weeks - long ground operation", and the USS Tripoli and 3,500 soldiers have arrived in the Middle East. Iran is ready to respond and has organized over a million people for ground combat. The ongoing US - Iran conflict has strengthened the market's expectation of interest rate hikes by the US and European central banks [2][6]. - The current US - Iran negotiation is at a deadlock. Geopolitical signals are switching frequently, and the negotiation is likely to be a long - drawn - out process, which will keep oil prices high. Precious metals are still suppressed by the expectation of monetary policy tightening due to rising inflation, and the adjustment is not over. The large - scale sale of gold reserves by the Turkish central bank to stabilize the exchange rate also puts pressure on gold prices. It is expected that precious metal prices will show a weak and volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran situation [2][7][8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate/% | Total Trading Volume/Hand | Total Open Interest/Hand | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 998.66 | - 40.56 | - 3.90 | 169083 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 992.45 | - 48.15 | - 4.63 | 81692 | 239470 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 4521.30 | 29.30 | 0.65 | | | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 17489 | - 2491 | - 12.47 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 17467 | - 313 | - 1.76 | 293094 | 2849646 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 69.77 | 1.96 | 2.89 | | | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Platinum | 493.05 | - 16.70 | - 3.28 | 5790 | 7356 | Yuan/gram | | Platinum 9995 | 477.04 | - 31.84 | - 6.26 | | | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Platinum | 1866.40 | - 31.84 | - 2.80 | | | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Palladium | 358.20 | - 31.84 | - 2.89 | 2838 | 7356 | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Palladium | 1384.50 | - 31.84 | - 2.12 | | | US dollars/ounce | [3] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The precious metal market was affected by the Middle East situation last week. Tensions at the beginning of the week led to a price drop, and Trump's delay in the attack on Iran led to a price rebound. The market is cautious due to the frequent switching of geopolitical signals [2][5]. - The US - Iran conflict continues, and the market's expectation of interest rate hikes by the US and European central banks is strengthening. The Fed's policy is considered to be dragging down the economy, and the inflation forecast has been raised. The European Central Bank will take action if necessary [6]. - The US - Iran negotiation is in a deadlock, and it is expected to be a long - term process, keeping oil prices high. Precious metals are under pressure from inflation - driven monetary policy tightening expectations, and the Turkish central bank's gold sales also put pressure on prices. Short - term precious metal prices are expected to be weak and volatile [7][8]. 3.3 Important Data Information - The US March composite PMI unexpectedly dropped to 51.4, with manufacturing expansion accelerating and service - sector growth slowing [9]. - The eurozone March composite PMI fell to a 10 - month low, and France's PMI contracted for three consecutive months, sounding a stagflation alarm [9]. - Wall Street institutions have significantly raised the probability of a US economic recession due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, soaring oil prices, and structural weakness in the labor market. Moody's model shows a 48.6% probability of a US recession in the next 12 months, and Goldman Sachs has raised the forecast to 30% [9]. - The OECD expects the global economic growth rate to be 2.9% in 2026 and rise slightly to 3% in 2027. The US economic growth rate is expected to slow from 2% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, and the US inflation rate will reach 4.2% this year, much higher than the Fed's expectation [9]. - The US February import prices rose 1.3% month - on - month, the largest single - month increase since March 2022, mainly driven by higher oil and natural gas prices. Export prices rose 1.5% month - on - month, the largest single - month increase since May 2022 [9]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 5,000 to 210,000, in line with market expectations. The number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week decreased by 32,000 to 1,819,000, the lowest level in nearly two years [10]. - The Turkish central bank's gold reserves decreased by 6 tons in the week of March 13 and 52.4 tons in the week of March 20. Bloomberg reported that the Turkish central bank may continue to sell gold to prevent the lira from depreciating further [10]. - Gold ETFs have seen an outflow of about 43 tons in the past two weeks [10]. 3.4 Relevant Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, inventory changes of COMEX and LBMA gold and silver, non - commercial net long positions of COMEX gold and silver, and the relationship between gold prices and various factors such as the US dollar, copper prices, inflation expectations, and VIX index [11][12][14][15][16][17][18][20][21][23][24][25][27][28][30][31][32][34][35][36][38][39][41][42][45][47][49][50][51]