巴林铝业遭袭损毁铝价偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, the frequent news of peace talks between the US and Iran last week initially released market risk sentiment, but Iran denied the talks. The large differences in the peace agreement and the setback in the hope of de - escalating the Middle East situation have led to a resurgence of risk - aversion sentiment. The attack on Bahrain Aluminium has damaged its facilities, with the impact on production capacity unclear. Newly - invested capacities in Inner Mongolia and Indonesia continue to increase. The downstream operating rate has risen by 1.1% to 64%. Aluminum ingot inventory has increased by 10,000 tons to 1.349 million tons, while aluminum rod inventory has decreased by 28,000 tons to 341,500 tons. Overall, due to the severe damage to Bahrain Aluminium, the expectation of further production cuts is rising, and supply concerns may become the mainstream logic again. Aluminum prices are expected to rise strongly at the opening this week. The market sentiment may fluctuate between the recession risk brought by the tightening cycle and the supply disruption caused by the conflict, and aluminum prices are expected to be strong but with large fluctuations [3][8]. - For cast aluminum, last week, the operating rate of aluminum alloy remained flat at 59.5%. The spot price of cast aluminum adjusted following the large fluctuations in aluminum prices, but the spot price of raw materials was relatively resistant to decline, compressing the profit of cast aluminum. Coupled with insufficient new downstream orders, the increase in the operating rate of cast aluminum enterprises was hindered. The large import loss made it difficult for imported goods to enter the market. The recovery in the consumption peak season was less than expected, and downstream procurement was highly sensitive to prices, with low inventory - building willingness and mainly for rigid demand. Overall, the cost support for cast aluminum has weakened slightly, but the downward space is expected to be limited. The supply - side operating rate has not continued to rise, and the import window is not open, so the supply pressure is not large. However, consumption is also relatively weak, providing limited support for prices. Cast aluminum is expected to fluctuate within a range [3][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - The price of LME aluminum for 3 - month contracts rose from 3,192 yuan/ton to 3,284.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 92.5 yuan/ton. The price of SHFE aluminum continuous - three contracts decreased from 24,085 dollars/ton to 24,025 dollars/ton, a decrease of 60 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 7.5 to 7.3, a decrease of 0.2. The LME spot premium increased from 37.83 dollars/ton to 61.23 dollars/ton, an increase of 23.4 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased from 429,675 tons to 420,875 tons, a decrease of 8,800 tons. The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased from 403,558 tons to 408,197 tons, an increase of 4,639 tons. The spot average price decreased from 24,546 yuan/ton to 23,596 yuan/ton, a decrease of 950 yuan/ton. The spot premium/discount increased from - 160 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton. The South China Storage spot average price decreased from 24,548 yuan/ton to 23,544 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,004 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference increased from - 2 yuan/ton to 52 yuan/ton, an increase of 54 yuan/ton. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased from 133,900 tons to 134,900 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum increased from 15,972.99 yuan/ton to 16,047.87 yuan/ton, an increase of 74.9 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum decreased from 8,573.01 yuan/ton to 7,548.13 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,024.9 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of cast aluminum decreased from 24,700 yuan/ton to 24,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton. The Baotai spot price of cast aluminum decreased from 24,100 yuan/ton to 23,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan decreased from 2,130 yuan/ton to 1,468 yuan/ton, a decrease of 662 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference in Shanghai decreased from 3,313 yuan/ton to 2,758 yuan/ton, a decrease of 555 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 47,732 tons to 36,684 tons, a decrease of 11,048 tons [5]. 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market was 23,596 yuan/ton, a decrease of 950 yuan/ton compared with last week. The weekly average price of the South China Storage spot was 23,544 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,004 yuan/ton compared with last week. - Macroscopically, US President Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to 8 pm on April 6, 2026, Eastern Time, and denied being eager to reach an agreement with Iran. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Composite PMI in March dropped to 51.4, a new low in 11 months. The manufacturing and service industries showed a differentiated trend: the manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4, exceeding expectations, while the service - industry PMI dropped to 51.1, also a new low in 11 months. The euro - zone S&P Global Composite PMI in March dropped from 51.9 in February to 50.5, the lowest since May last year. The preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4, a new high in 45 months, but the preliminary value of the service - industry PMI dropped from the previous value of 51.9 to 50.1, far lower than the expected 51.1. - In terms of electrolytic aluminum consumption, the operating rate of the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry increased by 1% to 63.9%. - In terms of electrolytic aluminum inventory, on March 26, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 10,000 tons to 1.349 million tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 28,000 tons to 341,500 tons. - For cast aluminum, the SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy on Friday was 24,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. The spot price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 was 23,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 662 yuan/ton to 1,468 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. The refined - scrap price difference of Shanghai machine - made primary aluminum decreased by 555 yuan/ton to 2,758 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. The operating rate of leading recycled - aluminum enterprises last week remained flat at 59.5% week - on - week. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory was 37,000 tons, a decrease of 11,048 tons compared with last Friday [6][7]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Similar to the core views, for electrolytic aluminum, due to the situation of the US - Iran peace talks and the attack on Bahrain Aluminium, aluminum prices are expected to rise strongly at the opening this week and be strong but with large fluctuations. For cast aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate within a range [8][9]. 3.4 Industry News - The second - quarter aluminum premium in Japan in 2026 (QMJP) is set at $350 - 353 per ton, with an average of $351.5 per ton, an increase of 80.27% compared with Q1. - The production capacity operation level of the San Ciprián smelter of Alcoa has reached 90% and is expected to reach full - load operation by the middle of this year. In 2021, the output of the San Ciprián smelter decreased due to high electricity prices. In April 2025, a large - scale power outage in Spain further disrupted the overall operation of the smelter and refinery. Before the production cut, the total annual production capacity of the smelter was 228,000 tons [11][12]. 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous - three, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium/discount, Shanghai aluminum month - to - month spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, physical trade seasonal spot premium/discount, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, electrolytic aluminum inventory seasonal changes, aluminum rod inventory seasonal changes, cast aluminum futures price, cast aluminum spot price, refined - scrap price difference, and cast aluminum exchange inventory [14][16][20]