LLDPE：开工继续下滑，负反馈下原料价格回调；PP：C3原料波动较大，出口规模延续

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE, the start - up rate continues to decline, and raw material prices are adjusted under negative feedback. For PP, C3 raw materials fluctuate greatly, and the export scale continues. The geopolitical situation is escalating, affecting raw material prices and supply - demand relationships of polyolefins [1][2] - The cost of PE is rising due to geopolitical impacts on raw materials, and the supply - demand situation is affected by factors such as production and maintenance. For PP, C3 has strong cost support, and there are changes in supply - demand and profit situations [2] Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: L2605 had a closing price of 8868 with a daily increase of 1.15%, trading volume of 907916, and a position change of 4709. PP2605 had a closing price of 9313 with a daily increase of 2.12%, trading volume of 1128102, and a position change of 13997. The 05 - contract basis for L2605 was - 368 (previous day: - 317), and for PP2605 was - 313 (previous day: - 220). The 05 - 09 contract spread for L2605 was 129 (previous day: 135), and for PP2605 was 333 (previous day: 311) [1] - Spot Price: In North China, the LLDPE spot price was 8500 yuan/ton (previous day: 8450), and PP was 8950 yuan/ton (previous day: 8900). In East China, LLDPE was 8550 yuan/ton (unchanged), and PP was 9000 yuan/ton (previous day: 8900). In South China, LLDPE was 8750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and PP was 9150 yuan/ton (previous day: 9050) [1] Spot News - Start - up Rate: The weekly start - up rate of PE was 73% (- 1%), with new maintenance at Lanzhou, Yangzi, and Satellite, and the start - up rate has dropped below 75%. The weekly start - up rate of PP was 67% and remained stable. In April, there are few incremental maintenance of PDH, but Zhejiang Petrochemical, Yulong, Jingbo, and Donghua Maoming are expected to have incremental maintenance, and the start - up rate may drop to 65% [1] - Market Conditions: PE grade spot prices are differentiated, with non - standard prices being relatively strong. PP weekly exports have slightly shrunk, and upstream export orders are placed cautiously [1] Market Condition Analysis - PE: Geopolitical factors lead to the expected strength of raw materials such as naphtha, increasing the cost of PE. After the festival, the demand for mulch film is in line with the season, and the start - up of packaging film has increased, but cost transmission takes time. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang has started mass production, and the planned maintenance and production reduction in April are increasing, the production of standard products is declining, and inventory is starting to be depleted. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical persistence and cost transmission [2] - PP: C3 is affected by supply disturbances from Saudi Arabia and Iran, with strong cost support, and PDH maintenance remains high. Before the 2605 contract, there is no new production, and the game between existing supply and demand intensifies. On the demand side, downstream enterprises have resumed work intensively, and demand has improved month - on - month. The PDH profit remains at a low level, and multiple PDH plants in South China have not resumed operation. Under the deep - loss of PDH profit, attention should be paid to the marginal changes of cracking and PDH plants [2][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 1, and that of PP is 1 [4]