纸浆：震荡运行20260330

Report Overview - The report focuses on the pulp market, analyzing its current situation, price trends, and influencing factors [3][4] 1. Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - The pulp market is expected to operate in a volatile manner. In March 2026, the pulp market showed different price trends for various types of pulp. Although April is a traditional demand peak season with potential for cultural paper tender orders to be released and port inventories to decline, the slow recovery of downstream paper mills' profits may suppress the rebound of pulp prices [4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Data - Futures Market (05 Contract): The daily closing price of pulp futures was 5,202 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 5,190 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The trading volume was 284,658 lots, an increase of 59,197 lots. The open interest was 153,678 lots, a decrease of 20,111 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 185,562 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons. The net position of the top 20 members was - 20,922 lots, an increase of 9,947 lots [3] - Spread Data: The basis of Silver Star - futures main contract was - 2 yuan, a decrease of 46 yuan; the basis of Goldfish - futures main contract (non - standard) was - 602 yuan, a decrease of 46 yuan. The month - spread of SP05 - SP07 was - 42 yuan, an increase of 6 yuan [3] - Spot Market: The domestic prices of coniferous pulp such as Northwood and Cariboo were 5,450 yuan/ton, and the international price of Silver Star was 710 US dollars/ton. The domestic prices of broadleaf pulp such as Jinyou and Star were around 4,600 yuan/ton, and the international price of Star was 620 US dollars/ton. The domestic price of chemimechanical pulp (Yinghe) was 3,800 yuan/ton, and the domestic price of unbleached pulp (Venus) was 4,800 yuan/ton with an international price of 620 US dollars/ton [3] - Trend Intensity: The pulp trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] 3.2 Industry News - In March 2026, the average spot price of coniferous pulp was 5,234 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decline of 0.9% and a year - on - year decline of 20.1%; the average spot price of broadleaf pulp was 4,583 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.3% and a year - on - year decline of 2.4%; the average spot price of unbleached pulp was 4,831 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decline of 1.7% and a year - on - year decline of 14.6%; the average spot price of chemimechanical pulp was 3,800 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 7.0% [4] - The import pulp market in March showed a volatile trend of "stable - decline - rebound". The main reasons for price changes were: rumors of foreign market price cuts during the Shanghai Pulp Week affected the futures market; different cost supports for different pulp varieties, with the broadleaf pulp foreign market price increase providing strong cost support; poor profits of downstream paper mills, who mainly consumed inventory and were wait - and - see, lacking substantial demand [5] - April is a traditional demand peak season, with potential for cultural paper tender orders to be released and port inventories to decline, but the slow recovery of downstream paper mills' profits may suppress the rebound of pulp prices [5]