华龙期货铁矿周报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the iron ore industry is ★★★ [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The global iron ore shipping volume has increased month - on - month and is at a high level in the same period of the past three years. The molten iron output continues to rise, and the supply and demand of the iron ore fundamentals are both increasing. The black industry chain is gradually getting rid of the negative feedback logic. Although the short - term market sentiment declined last week, it is expected that the medium - term iron ore trend will be oscillating and bullish, and the price center may have room to rise [5][32] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract rose 0.06% [4] 3.2 Important Market Information - Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian stated on March 26 that China and the US are maintaining communication regarding US President Trump's planned visit to China in mid - May. - Australian ore miner Fenix warned that due to the war in Iran, diesel supply is limited, affecting the Australian mining industry and forcing the company to scale back some business activities. Tropical Cyclone Narrel is raging off the coast of Western Australia, causing fuel supply disruptions. - The Pilbara Port Authority announced that several ports have been closed due to Tropical Cyclone Narrel [14] 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of February 2026, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 9,763.79 million tons, a decrease of 2,201.21 million tons from the previous month; the import average price was $101.34 per ton, an increase of $0.18 per ton from the previous month. - As of February 2026, Australia's iron ore shipping volume was 5,231.4 million tons, a decrease of 879.8 million tons from the previous month; Brazil's iron ore shipping volume was 2,293.7 million tons, an increase of 404.6 million tons from the first half of the month [18][21] 3.4 Demand - side Situation - The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills, and the Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume are used to measure the demand - side situation, but specific data trends are not elaborated in this part [22][28] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.03%, a month - on - month increase of 1.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.08%; the average daily molten iron output was 2.3109 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.94 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.19 million tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 43.29%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87%. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 17.00031 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 98.09 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.1317 billion tons, a decrease of 7.80 million tons; the number of ships at the port was 111, an increase of 11. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 17.66683 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 147.35 million tons [31] 3.6 Market Outlook - The global iron ore shipping volume has increased month - on - month and is at a high level in the same period of the past three years. The molten iron output continues to rise, and the supply and demand of the iron ore fundamentals are both increasing. The black industry chain is gradually getting rid of the negative feedback logic. Although the short - term market sentiment declined last week, it is expected that the medium - term iron ore trend will be oscillating and bullish, and the price center may have room to rise [5][32] 3.7 Operation Strategy - For single - side trading, take a bullish approach on dips in the medium term. - For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude. - For options, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [5][33]