集运指数（欧线）：现货装载承压，04窄幅震荡；远月跟随地缘波动

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The near - month 2604 contract shows a narrow - range oscillation, and on Friday's close, the 04 contract is basically at par with the week 15 spot freight. Attention should be paid to Maersk's week 16 cabin opening guidance to further determine the basic positioning of the second - phase delivery settlement price of the 2604 contract. The far - month contracts fluctuate widely following geopolitical factors, and in the short term, geopolitical tensions are difficult to truly ease, so upward risks should be monitored [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data of Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Futures Contracts: For EC2604, the closing price is 1,735.0 with a daily decline of 3.80%, trading volume of 9,616, open interest of 9,262, and a decrease of 1,468 in open interest; for EC2606, the closing price is 2,385.0 with a daily decline of 1.73%, trading volume of 11,021, open interest of 14,153, and an increase of 322 in open interest; for EC2608, the closing price is 2,403.0 with a daily decline of 0.12%, trading volume of 809, open interest of 2,642, and a decrease of 155 in open interest; for EC2610, the closing price is 1,595.2 with a daily increase of 0.02%, trading volume of 1,148, open interest of 7,164, and a decrease of 29 in open interest [1]. - Spot Freight Index: The SCFIS for the European route is 1,693.26 points, with a weekly decline of 7.7%; the SCFIS for the US - West route is 1,024.11 points, with a weekly increase of 8.8% [1]. - Spot Freight Rates: The spot freight rates of different carriers for the European route vary. For example, Maersk's rates are $38 for $/TEU, $2450 for $/40'HC, and $1465 for $/20'GP [3]. 2. Macro News - There are continuous conflicts between Iran and the US and Israel in the Middle East, including Iran's military actions, threats, and counter - threats, as well as power outages in some areas of Tehran after infrastructure attacks. The US has increased its military presence in the Middle East, and there are discussions about ground operations against Iran. Meanwhile, there are also discussions among some countries about the cease - fire proposal in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [8][9][10]. 3. Supply - side Situation - In the past week, the absolute value of April's shipping capacity changed little, with the latest weekly average at 31.6 million TEU/week. The first and second halves of April are relatively close, at 31.7 and 31.4 million TEU/week respectively. There was 1 pending voyage in the first half of April and 2 blank sailings from COSCO (&OOCL) in the second half. May's shipping capacity has been revised down from 33.1 to 31.6 million TEU/week, mainly due to 3 sailings suspended by the PA Alliance after the May Day holiday. May's shipping capacity is up 5.3% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month [11]. 4. Demand - side Situation - In the second week of April, there was no large - scale full - capacity situation. With the upgrade of the PA ship group routes, the loading differences among shipping companies continue. The FE4 route in Shanghai Port faces great cargo - collection pressure, especially for ONE, which has the largest cabin share. In the long - term, if oil prices rise and remain high, potential downward risks may come from the negative feedback of the macro - economy, which will be transmitted to international trade. The WTO predicts that the global trade growth rate will slow down from 4.6% in 2025 to 1.9% in 2026, with Middle East conflicts and energy price fluctuations being the main downward risks [12]. 5. Valuation - It is estimated that the market freight rate center in the second week of April may be around $2450/FEU, equivalent to about 1700 - 1800 points in SCFIS, which is included in the first - phase delivery settlement price of the 2604 contract. Shipping companies may announce price increases on April 15 as a matter of habit. The basis for price increases is weak in terms of supply - demand, while the rising oil prices weaken the shipping companies' motivation to cut prices, increasing the game - playing nature [13].