矿石周度报告：矿石价格上行，中东铝厂减产预期升温-20260330

1. Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core View - The price of alumina is affected by multiple factors. Although the oversupply situation has slightly eased, the cost of alumina production has increased due to the rising prices of related raw materials. However, the expected reduction in electrolytic aluminum production in the Middle East will impact global alumina demand. Overall, the alumina market still has a significant over - capacity, but the rising cost provides support for the futures price under the influence of the Middle East conflict [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - Raw Materials: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week, with the ex - works含税 price of 58/5 grade ore in Shanxi at 628 yuan and in Henan at 610 yuan/ton. Inland mine开工率 is still low, and the resumption of some mines is slow. For imports, the CIF price of Guinean ore at $70/ton has low acceptance from downstream. The Guinean government changed its statement to reducing overall export volume. 4.071 million tons of new ore arrived, including 3.368 million tons from Guinea and 0.534 million tons from Australia. The freight for Cape - type ships on the Guinea - China route is $31/ton [2][9] - Alumina: The spot price of alumina continued to rise last week, but the increase narrowed. The northern comprehensive price of ALD is 2760 - 2800 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from last week; the domestic weighted index is 2788 yuan/ton, up 15.7 yuan/ton. The port quotation of imported alumina is 2730 - 2780 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. Most traders are cautious in selling and reluctant to sell at low prices. In the import market, the spot trading activity overseas increased, with 4 spot transactions reported and prices rising. The theoretical import cost to Chinese ports rose to about 2864 yuan/ton. As of last week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2660 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of 102 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, some southern alumina enterprises entered the overhaul stage, and some northern enterprises increased their production loads, but the total operating capacity did not change significantly. The total built - in capacity of alumina in China is 114.62 million tons, with an operating capacity of 93.75 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from last week, and an operating rate of 81.8% [3][10] - Demand: Domestically, Liaoning Xiangyu Aluminum started the resumption of production, planning to resume 300,000 tons and complete the resumption in May, with the current operating capacity increasing to 490,000 tons. The second - phase project of Huomei Hongjun Zha Aluminum resumed production to 1 million tons. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4.4573 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons week - on - week. Overseas, the expansion project of Balco electrolytic aluminum plant under India's Vedanta is slowly being put into production, with the current operating capacity at 840,000 tons. The San Ciprián aluminum plant in Spain is gradually resuming production, with the current operating capacity reaching 205,000 tons and full production expected in the middle of the year. The latest overseas operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 2.938 million tons [11] - Inventory: The national alumina inventory last week was 5.379 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from last week. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises fluctuated slightly, with increases and decreases in the north and south, showing a slight overall increase. The bagged inventory of alumina plants maintained normal shipments, with slight regional fluctuations and the total remaining the same as last week. The instantaneous re - export of bagged alumina had a short - term significant impact on the inventory changes of some ports. The import of foreign - trade alumina in northern ports remained at a certain scale, while the domestic - trade alumina decreased relatively. The inventory in yards/platforms/in - transit/delivery warehouses continued to increase [11] - Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 416,774 tons, an increase of 24,587 tons from last week [12] 3.2 Key News Summary - Damage to UAE Global Aluminum's Facility: UAE Global Aluminum's AITaweelah facility in Abu Dhabi's Khalifa Economic Zone was severely damaged during an attack by Iranian missiles and drones. Multiple employees were injured but none were in life - threatening condition. The company said it would resume operations as soon as possible. The AITaweelah aluminum complex consists of an alumina plant with a built - in capacity of 2.45 million tons and an electrolytic aluminum plant with a built - in capacity of 1.5 million tons [13] - Rise in Alumina Import Cost: The FOB price of Australian alumina rose from $310/ton to $320/ton, and the theoretical import cost to Chinese ports rose to about 2864 yuan/ton (last week's estimated import cost was about 2684 yuan/ton), higher than the average price of 2780 yuan/ton in the northern region, indicating no short - term import profit [13] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain - Raw Materials and Cost: The report provides data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various provinces [14][16][18] - Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance: It includes data on domestic provincial alumina spot prices, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina [29][31][32] - Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: Data on electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant alumina inventory, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, domestic total social alumina inventory, and the quantity and holding volume of alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are provided [40][43][45]