棉花：内盘缺乏新的驱动20260330

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic cotton futures market lacks new driving forces. The trend strength of cotton is rated as neutral with a score of 0 [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2605 closed at 15,395 yuan/ton yesterday with a -0.16% daily increase and 15,435 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.26% increase. CY2605 closed at 21,435 yuan/ton yesterday with a -0.95% daily increase and 21,415 yuan/ton in the night session with a -0.09% increase. ICE US Cotton 5 closed at 69.47 cents/pound with a 0.04% daily increase. The trading volume of CF2605 was 467,146 lots, an increase of 70,249 lots from the previous day, and the open - interest was 1,087,852 lots, an increase of 16,296 lots. The trading volume of CY2605 was 10,775 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open - interest was 9,504 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 12,434, a decrease of 10 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 339, unchanged from the previous day. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 222, a decrease of 5 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 78, an increase of 160 [1] - Spot Price Data: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,644 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,583 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price in Shandong was 16,849 yuan/ton, an increase of 88 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price in Hebei was 16,875 yuan/ton, an increase of 89 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 3128B index was 16,814 yuan/ton, an increase of 69 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Cotlook:A index was 80.10 cents/pound, an increase of 1.25 cents/pound from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 22,280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 22,609 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Spread Data: The CF5 - 9 spread was - 135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot Situation: According to TTEB information, the overall basis of domestic cotton spot is stable. The mainstream negotiable basis of 2025/26 North Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 and micronaire value above 4 is mostly in the range of CF05 + 1350 - 1450, and many quotes are above 1400, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The mainstream basis of 2025/26 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked 3130/30 in Shandong and Henan warehouses with micronaire value above 4 and impurity within 3 is mostly in the range of CF05+1550 - 1850, and most quotes are above 1600, for self - pick - up in the inland [2] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation: According to TTEB information, the quotes of pure - cotton yarn are generally stable, and the market trading is dull. Recently, new orders and inquiries for regular yarn and medium - low - count yarn (including rotor - spun yarn) of textile enterprises are few, the shipment of rotor - spun yarn is weak, and some enterprises offer discounts. For combed high - count yarn, most manufacturers had full orders before, but recently some textile enterprises have spare machines [2] - US Cotton Situation: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures fluctuated widely during the day. In the early morning, ICE cotton continued to rise, and the May contract once reached 70.31 cents/pound, a new high this year. However, then there were profit - taking orders, and the May contract retreated to 68.88 cents/pound at most. It rebounded slightly in the late trading and finally closed at 69.47 cents/pound [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the range of [- 2,2], where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [4]