橡胶：宽幅震荡20260330

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Southeast Asian rubber - producing regions have extremely tight raw material supplies, pushing up glue prices. The initial new rubber output in Yunnan, China, is limited, and the short - term global supply shortage cannot be alleviated. Upstream costs strongly support the rubber price [2][3] - Overseas geopolitical events continue to disrupt the market, and there is a strong sentiment to push up synthetic rubber prices. However, the inventory of natural rubber dark - colored rubber has returned to the accumulation stage. The price of natural rubber has rebounded from the bottom, but the rebound strength is not large and is still lower than the average price of last week [3] - The average weekly price of Thai glue has increased, while the average weekly price of cup rubber has slightly decreased. Due to the seasonal shutdown in the Thai producing area, some concentrated latex processing plants have increased prices to grab glue, while the buying of dry rubber factories is average [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - The day - session closing price of the rubber main contract was 16,510 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day; the night - session closing price was 16,480 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan from the previous day [1] - The trading volume was 233,521 lots, an increase of 27,631 lots from the previous day; the open interest of the 05 contract was 91,950 lots, a decrease of 10,209 lots from the previous day [1] - The number of warehouse receipts was 125,410 tons, unchanged from the previous day; the net short - position of the top 20 members was 13,268 lots, a decrease of 236 lots from the previous day [1] 3.1.2 Spread Data - The basis of spot - futures main contract was - 160, unchanged from the previous day; the basis of mixed - futures main contract was - 830, an increase of 30 from the previous day [1] - The month - spread of RU05 - RU09 was - 45, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The RSS3 outer - market quote was 2,550 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars from the previous day; the STR20 was 2,065 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars from the previous day; the SMR20 was 2,055 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars from the previous day; the SIR20 was 1,975 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars from the previous day [1] - The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber was 18,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan from the previous day; the price of Qilu cis - butadiene rubber was 18,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan from the previous day [1] 3.1.3 Spot Market - The price of Thai standard rubber in the Qingdao market was 1,995 - 2,005 US dollars/ton (near - port) and 2,005 - 2,010 US dollars/ton (spot), unchanged from the previous day [1] - The price of Thai mixed rubber was 2,005 - 2,015 US dollars/ton (near - port) and 2,015 - 2,020 US dollars/ton (spot), unchanged from the previous day [1] - The price of African 10 rubber was 1,935 - 1,940 US dollars/ton (near - port) and 1,940 - 1,945 US dollars/ton (spot), an increase of 5 US dollars from the previous day [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rubber is 0, with a value range of [- 2, 2], indicating a neutral state [1] 3.3 Industry News - As of March 27, 2026, the inventory days of natural rubber raw materials of sample tire enterprises were 18.3 days, a decrease of 2 days or 10% from the previous period. This week, sample tire enterprises mainly digested inventory, and the replenishment enthusiasm was weaker than the previous period [3]