铝产业链周报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of domestic bauxite remains stable, while the mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore has increased by $3.4 per dry ton to $67 per dry ton due to rising shipping costs. The export restriction measures for Guinea's bauxite will be relatively mild, and the policy is expected to be officially introduced soon. The operating capacity of alumina has increased by 50,000 tons to 93.75 million tons, and the national alumina inventory has increased by 10,000 tons to 5.379 million tons. The current industry profit has been repaired, and enterprises have a strong willingness to maintain stable production. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased by 30,000 tons to 44.786 million tons. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is gradually affecting the production of electrolytic aluminum in the region, and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices has raised concerns about aluminum plant production cuts. Two major aluminum plants in the Middle East were attacked over the weekend, and the extent of capacity damage is currently unknown. On the demand side, the weekly average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased by 1.1% to 64%. Downstream operations are gradually picking up, entering the peak season rhythm, but demand is also suppressed by the sharp fluctuations in high aluminum prices. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of aluminum ingots is still waiting for a turning point. For recycled cast aluminum alloys, new orders for recycled aluminum plants are insufficient, and there is insufficient impetus for the operating rate to recover. Due to concerns about supply, aluminum prices are expected to be boosted, and attention should be paid to the development of the situation [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve, US dollar index, US Treasury yields, and RMB exchange rates, but no specific analysis or conclusions are provided [5]. 3.2 Bauxite - The price of domestic bauxite remains stable. Mines in Shanxi, Henan and other places are gradually resuming production, but fundamental issues such as mining rectification, mine reclamation requirements, and strengthened safety and environmental supervision are difficult to fundamentally resolve in the short term. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore has increased by $3.4 per dry ton to $67 per dry ton. Although some mining enterprises have signed long - term shipping agreements, some long - term agreement prices are linked to oil prices, and the sharp increase in shipping costs, combined with Guinea's plan to restrict bauxite exports, has pushed up the price of imported ore from Guinea. According to ALD, the export restriction measures for Guinea's bauxite will be relatively mild, and the Guinean Ministry of Mines has held talks with relevant mining enterprises, and the policy is expected to be officially introduced soon [8]. 3.3 Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 93.75 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 89.7%. The weighted price of domestic spot alumina was 2,788 yuan per ton, an increase of 15.7 yuan per ton week - on - week. The national alumina inventory was 5.379 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week. National alumina enterprises are operating relatively stably. The current industry profit has been repaired, and enterprises have a strong willingness to maintain stable production. The second phase of a large alumina plant in Hebei is in a state of full shutdown at the roasting end due to policy influence. Currently, the group is accelerating the construction progress of the second and third phases of the roasting furnaces in Jiayuguan, with an expected construction period of 7 - 9 months. Guinean officials said they will restrict bauxite exports, but the measures are expected to be relatively mild, and alumina is expected to show a wide - range bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term [11]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.462 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week; the operating capacity was 44.786 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons week - on - week. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will gradually affect the production of electrolytic aluminum in the region, and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices has raised concerns about production cuts at European aluminum plants. In terms of new production capacity, 350,000 tons of Zha Aluminum are under construction, and the second phase of 80,000 tons of Tianshan Aluminum is still under construction. In terms of resuming production, 300,000 tons of Liaoning Zhongwang have started to resume production, and Guangxi Longlin is accelerating the revitalization of 57,100 tons of idle production capacity. Overseas, the first - phase 120,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of Huatong Angola is under construction and may reach full production in the second quarter; the first batch of 500,000 tons of the North Kalimantan electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia is under construction; the Slovak government will seek to restart the Slovalco aluminum plant with a capacity of about 200,000 tons that has been shut down; the about 200,000 - ton production capacity reduction of the Grundartangi electrolytic aluminum plant in Iceland will start to resume production at the end of April, six months earlier than originally planned; two major aluminum plants in Bahrain and the UAE were attacked over the weekend, and the extent of capacity damage is currently unknown; Qatar Aluminum has decided to stop further production cuts and will maintain an operating level of about 60%; the 580,000 - ton capacity of the Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique has entered a maintenance and maintenance state [20]. 3.5 Inventory - The report presents data on the social inventory of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures inventory, and LME aluminum inventory from 2022 to 2026, but no specific analysis or conclusions are provided [24][25][26][27]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum Alloy - The weekly average operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy leading enterprises remained stable at 59.5%. Some downstream enterprises still face profit pressure, and some die - casting enterprises exporting to the Middle East are facing transportation obstacles. They mainly purchase raw materials based on rigid demand and have a weak willingness to stock up. The recovery rhythm of the demand peak season is lower than expected, new orders for recycled aluminum plants are insufficient, production enthusiasm is not high, and there is insufficient impetus for the operating rate to recover [30]. 3.7 Downstream Operations - The weekly average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1.1% to 64%. - Aluminum profiles: The weekly average operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises increased by 4% to 59%. In the industrial profile sector, the demand in new energy fields such as automobiles and batteries has been good recently, driving up the operating rate of relevant enterprises; orders related to electricity such as power pipelines and transformers have performed well. In the construction profile sector, the decline in aluminum prices has provided some boost to the construction market demand, and downstream orders have increased month - on - month. - Aluminum strips: The weekly average operating rate of aluminum strip leading enterprises increased by 1% to 71%. The aluminum strip market has been stable, and leading enterprises have been producing steadily. In terms of terminal consumption, the downstream demand for energy storage has been continuously strong, and the capacity utilization rate of leading battery cell enterprises has been at a high level, providing support for aluminum strip materials such as battery casings and brazing materials related to energy storage. - Aluminum cables: The weekly average operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises increased by 1% to 66%. Currently, it is a critical period for power grid construction material preparation. Coupled with the accelerated implementation of UHV and power transmission and transformation projects, the characteristics of the peak demand season in the industry are prominent. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is high, the delivery rhythm is tight, and the supply - tight pattern continues. The promotion rhythm of major projects this year has accelerated, with the start of the ±800 kV UHV project from Inner Mongolia West to Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei and the resumption of the 1000 kV project from Datong to Huailai to Tianjin South, as well as the intensive promotion of 500 kV and 200 kV power transmission and transformation projects. - Primary aluminum alloy: The weekly average operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises increased by 0.8% to 55%. Terminal consumption has maintained a moderate growth. After the previous inventory has been digested to a certain extent, production enterprises are gradually and steadily increasing their operating levels and increasing output to deliver long - term orders [38][43][46].