——石油化工行业周报第444期（20260323—20260329）：\三桶油\及油服：业绩有望穿越周期，能源保供战略价值凸显-20260330

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [6] Core Views - The performance of the "Big Three" oil companies and oil service firms is expected to withstand cyclical fluctuations, highlighting the strategic value of energy supply security [1][2] - Despite a decline in international oil prices, domestic natural gas demand continues to grow, with a projected increase of 2.9% in consumption for 2025 [1] - The "Big Three" oil companies are expected to enhance their production capacity and maintain high capital expenditures, indicating long-term investment value [2] Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Overview - In 2025, the average Brent crude oil price is projected to be $68.19 per barrel, a year-on-year decrease of 14.6% [1] - Domestic refined oil demand is influenced by alternative energy sources, leading to a 4.1% decline in consumption [1] - The net profit of China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation is expected to decrease by 4.5%, 36.8%, and 11.5% respectively [1] Section 2: Production and Capital Expenditure - The oil equivalent production of the "Big Three" is expected to increase by 2.5%, 1.9%, and 6.9% respectively in 2025 [2] - The upstream capital expenditure plan for 2026 is projected to increase by 4% compared to 2025 [2] Section 3: Oil Service Companies - The net profit of CNOOC Services is expected to rise by 22.5%, while other oil service firms show mixed results [3] - The gross profit margins of oil service companies are generally improving, indicating enhanced operational quality [3] Section 4: Geopolitical Impact - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S.-Iran conflict, are affecting global energy supply chains, emphasizing the importance of domestic energy security [4][29] - The "Big Three" are increasing their exploration and production efforts to bolster domestic output [4] Section 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, as well as oil service firms like CNOOC Services and others [5]