宁证期货今日早评-20260330

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The report provides short - term evaluations and outlooks for multiple commodities including coal, methanol, precious metals, industrial metals, energy, and agricultural products, considering factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical conflicts, and policy changes [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Coal and Related Products - Coking Coal: After most domestic coal mines resumed production, they maintained normal production, but some mines in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi had production limitations, resulting in a slight decline in output. The overall customs clearance of Mongolian coal remained high, and in the short - term, prices were likely to rise and difficult to fall. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts [1]. - Methanol: Domestic methanol production was at a high level, downstream demand recovered, port inventories continued to decline, and imports decreased significantly. The market was expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [2]. Precious Metals - Silver: There were uncertainties in the market's interest - rate hike expectations and the appointment of the Fed chairman. Silver passively followed the movement of gold and was expected to fluctuate within a range in the medium - term [4]. - Gold: The war situation seemed to have escalated, and the risk - aversion sentiment rose. Gold had a short - term rebound demand and was expected to have a wide - range fluctuation pattern in the medium - term [4]. Industrial Metals - Iron Ore: Geopolitical conflicts affected the shipping rhythm of overseas mines, and the high oil price increased shipping costs. The overall supply - demand of iron ore was in a state where the pressure was difficult to be traded. Market sentiment was affected by conflicts, and the liquidity of some varieties was a key factor affecting prices [5]. - Steel (Rebar): The peak - season demand for rebar was expected to be limited, the supply pressure increased with the resumption of blast furnaces, and the inventory was relatively high. The futures price faced the pressure of a high - level decline [5]. - Aluminum: Two major aluminum companies in the Middle East were attacked, increasing the market's concern about supply interruption. Although the domestic supply was relatively stable, aluminum prices were expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [11]. - Copper: The long - term cooperation plan pointed to an increase in supply, but it had limited impact on the current market. The supply was still tight, and the demand was picking up. Copper prices were expected to fluctuate in the short - term [8]. - Nickel: The postponement of the windfall tax implementation provided short - term support. The supply tightening expectation was alleviated, and the demand was expected to release further. Nickel prices were expected to fluctuate [12]. - Alkali (Soda Ash): The domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight decline. The demand was general, and the inventory was high. Prices were expected to be slightly weaker in the short - term [14]. Energy - Crude Oil: The short - term operation should be cautious. In the medium - term, the longer the war lasted, the stronger the upward driving force for oil prices [10]. - Asphalt: The supply shortage was not effectively alleviated. If the terminal consumption recovered, the inventory was expected to decline, and it was advisable to take long positions at low levels [10]. - Fuel Oil: High - sulfur fuel oil supply might be tightened due to geopolitical conflicts, and low - sulfur fuel oil production declined. It was advisable to take long positions at low levels [12]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The market's attention to the US biodiesel policy increased, and the export of Malaysian palm oil was strong. The domestic high - inventory situation suppressed prices. Palm oil was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [7]. - Rapeseed Meal: The future supply of rapeseed was expected to increase, and the market was bearish. Rapeseed meal prices were expected to decline in the short - term [8]. - Pig: The pig price was weak and stable, with limited demand growth. The futures price of the far - month contract was stable, and attention should be paid to the slaughter volume and the reduction of sows [6]. Others - Five - year Treasury Bond: The industrial enterprise profit data was better than expected, which was negative for the bond market. The bond market was expected to fluctuate and wait for policy guidance [7]. - Plastic: The supply pressure of LLDPE was expected to be alleviated, the downstream demand was rising, but the high price suppressed the purchasing enthusiasm. Plastic prices were expected to fluctuate in the short - term [15].