生鲜软商品板块周度策略报告-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no mention of the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar: International factors such as high - priced Brazilian ethanol and potentially lower Indian sugar production improve the global sugar supply - demand situation. In China, with southern sugar mills starting to finish the crushing season, the domestic sugar market fundamentals are also improving. Zhengzhou sugar futures may rise in a wide - range oscillation [3]. - Pulp: The spot market is in a state of buyer - seller game. Although the downstream demand for finished paper has improved in the peak season, the positive impact of seasonal demand fluctuations is not obvious. The cost support has increased, but the weak fundamentals remain. The pulp price may rebound in the short - term, but the upward space is limited [3]. - Double - offset Paper: The operating rate is rising, but the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The cost - side driving force is not strong, and the supply is still relatively loose. It is expected to maintain a range - bound arrangement in the short - term, and the rebound height is limited [4]. - Fresh Fruit Sector - Apple: The decline in apple futures prices is due to market differences in delivery value. The supply side has medium - term support, but the consumption side lacks driving force. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [6]. - Jujube: The jujube futures price has rebounded from the bottom and then entered a narrow - range oscillation. The spot inventory is gradually reaching its seasonal peak and then declining. The futures - spot price difference has been alleviated. Different trading strategies are recommended according to different positions [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - Fresh Fruit Futures - Apple 2605: Recommend to reduce or exit long positions at high prices. The supply side has medium - term support, but the marginal driving force is decreasing, and the futures price fluctuates in a high - level range. The support range is 9000 - 9200, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500 [15]. - Jujube 2605: Recommend to reduce short positions. The agricultural products are rebounding from the low level, and the jujube spot inventory is reaching its peak and then declining. The support range is 8900 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9300 - 9700 [15]. - Soft Commodity Futures - Sugar 2605: Recommend to hold long positions with a light position. The supply - demand fundamentals are improving, and the supply pressure in China is weakening. The support range is 5250 - 5300, and the pressure range is 5600 - 5650 [15]. - Pulp 2605: Recommend to short at high prices. Although there is bottom support, the upward space is limited due to high inventory and weak fundamentals. The support range is 5000 - 5100, and the pressure range is 5350 - 5400 [15]. - Double - offset Paper 2605: Recommend range - bound operation. The spot market improvement is limited, and the cost - side driving force is general. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4250 - 4300 [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Plate Weekly Market Review - Futures Market Review - Apple 2605 closed at 9967, with a weekly decline of 754 and a decline rate of 7.03%. - Jujube 2605 closed at 8870, with a weekly increase of 30 and an increase rate of 0.34%. - Sugar 2605 closed at 5464, with a weekly increase of 25 and an increase rate of 0.46%. - Pulp 2605 closed at 5202, with a weekly increase of 38 and an increase rate of 0.74%. - Double - offset Paper 2602 closed at 4308, with a weekly increase of 212 and an increase rate of 5.18% [16]. - Spot Market Review - The spot price of apples is 4.70 yuan per catty, with no change compared to the previous period and an increase of 0.55 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of jujubes is 9.40 yuan per kilogram, with a decrease of 0.10 yuan compared to the previous period and a decrease of 5.30 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of sugar is 5460 yuan per ton, with no change compared to the previous period and a decrease of 705 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of pulp (Shandong Silver Star) is 5180 yuan, with a decrease of 40 yuan compared to the previous period and a decrease of 1300 yuan year - on - year [21]. 3.3 Third Part: Plate Basis Situation The report provides basis data charts for jujube, sugar, and pulp main - continuous contracts, but no specific data analysis is given [29][31][34]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation The report provides spread data charts for apples, jujubes, and sugar in different months, but no specific data analysis is given [37][39][41]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: The number of warehouse receipts is 0, with no change compared to the previous period and the same as the same period last year. - Jujube: The number of warehouse receipts is 4273, an increase of 161 compared to the previous period and a decrease of 2198 compared to the same period last year. - Sugar: The number of warehouse receipts is 16342, with no change compared to the previous period and a decrease of 11068 compared to the same period last year. - Pulp: The number of warehouse receipts is 185562, a decrease of 1000 compared to the previous period and a decrease of 189546 compared to the same period last year [41]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Option - related Data - Option Strategy Recommendation - Apple 2605: Recommend to sell out - of - the - money put options. - Jujube 2605: Recommend to sell deep out - of - the - money call options. - Sugar 2605: Recommend to sell out - of - the - money put options [41]. - Apple Option Data The report provides charts of apple option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility, but no specific data analysis is given [44]. - Sugar Option Data The report provides charts of sugar option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, historical volatility, and implied volatility, but no specific data analysis is given [45]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Plate Futures Fundamental Situation - Apple - Production Area Weather: The report provides charts of minimum temperature and precipitation in apple - producing areas such as Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific data analysis is given [48]. - Export Situation: The report provides a chart of apple export volume, but no specific data analysis is given [53]. - Inventory Situation: The report provides charts of national apple inventory, Shandong and Shaanxi weekly apple storage inventory, but no specific data analysis is given [54]. - Jujube The report provides charts of jujube trading volume in Henan and Hebei, and the daily arrival volume in Guangdong Ruyifang Market, but no specific data analysis is given [58]. - Sugar The report provides charts of national sugar industrial inventory, monthly sugar import volume, and sugar spot - futures price difference, but no specific data analysis is given [60]. - Pulp The report provides charts of domestic four - port pulp inventory, global pulp producer inventory days, and production volume of various paper products, but no specific data analysis is given [64]. - Double - offset Paper The report provides charts of double - offset paper capacity utilization rate, production volume, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption, but no specific data analysis is given [78].