铁矿石：谈判存缓和预期，矿价下跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the expectation of easing in recent negotiations and the weakening of the driving factors, the iron ore price has declined. The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, adjusting the structure, preventing risks, and promoting reforms. The GDP growth target has become more pragmatic, and the scale of policy - based financial instruments has been increased. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises has increased [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - Futures: The closing price of I2605 is 812.0 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 5.0 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.61%. The yesterday's position is 387,244 hands, with a decrease of 20,782 hands [1]. - Spot Prices: For imported ores, the price of Carajás fines (65%) is 945.0 yuan/ton, down 8.0 yuan/ton; PB fines (61.5%) is 786.0 yuan/ton, down 6.0 yuan/ton; Jinbuba (61%) is 736.0 yuan/ton, down 8.0 yuan/ton; Super Special (56.5%) is 668.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton. For domestic ores, the price of Hanxing (66%) and Laiwu (65%) remains unchanged at 981.0 yuan/ton and 899.0 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Basis: The basis of I2605 against Jinbuba is 42.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.6 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the basis of I2605 against Super Special is 60.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/ton [1]. - Price Spreads: The spread of I2605 - I2609 is 24.0 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton; the spread of I2609 - I2701 is 18.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton; the spread of Carajás fines - PB fines is 159.0 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan/ton; the spread of PB fines - Jinbuba is 50.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan/ton; the spread of PB fines - Super Special is 118.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The previous structural contradictions such as rising sea - freight, limited spot liquidity, and the upward shift of the price of the lowest deliverable product drove the iron ore price to a relatively high level. Recently, there is an expectation of easing in negotiations, and the driving factors are expected to weaken, leading to the decline of the ore price [1]. - The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, adjusting the structure, preventing risks, and promoting reforms. The GDP growth target is adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5% - 5.0%", and the scale of policy - based financial instruments is increased [2]. - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises is 231.09 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.94 million tons [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is - 1, indicating a bearish view [3]