期货研究报告：战争再度升级，能化仍应偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The performance of commodities next week is expected to be in the order of energy and chemicals > ferrous metals > agricultural products > non - ferrous metals > precious metals. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of continuous reversal of market sentiment due to the erratic stance of the Trump administration [2][18][105] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - week Review and Views 3.1.1 One - week Review - From March 16th to March 22nd, war expectations reversed continuously, and the trends of various commodities were differentiated. In terms of sectors, the order was oil chemical > non - ferrous metals > coal chemical > black > agricultural products > precious metals > energy. On Monday, the US - Iran conflict intensified, energy and chemical prices rose, driving the black sector stronger, while precious metals and non - ferrous metals weakened, and agricultural products fluctuated narrowly. On Tuesday, Trump started TACO, energy and chemical sectors weakened rapidly, and the increase in the black sector was also reduced. Subsequently, the market was mainly trading in the TACO mode. Near the weekend, the risk of war escalation reappeared, the decline in energy prices narrowed, and chemical products turned up. The market's interest - rate hike expectation decreased, and precious metals and non - ferrous metals rebounded [1][12] 3.1.2 Next - week Outlook - War situation and economic indicators will jointly affect the market next week. There are signs that the war is escalating again. Important economic indicators such as the March PMI of major economies and the US March non - farm payrolls will be released. It is expected that China's March PMI will rise, and the US March S&P manufacturing PMI will recover. War escalation is beneficial to energy and chemicals, and the price increase of energy products will spill over to the black and some agricultural products. Although the rise in oil prices has made the market price in the Fed's interest - rate hike this year, the risk of stagflation is also rising. The overall performance of commodities next week is expected to be energy and chemicals > ferrous metals > agricultural products > non - ferrous metals > precious metals [2][17][18] 3.2 Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Data Tracking - The US dollar index strengthened, and the yield of the 10Y US Treasury bond increased. As of the close on March 27th, the US dollar index rose 0.67% to 100.1745 compared with the close of last weekend; the yield of the 10Y US Treasury bond was reported at 4.44%, up 5BP from last weekend, and the interest - rate spread between the 10Y Chinese and US Treasury bonds was inverted by 262.1BP. The war rhythm still affects the market. The RMB fluctuated narrowly [26] 3.3 Upstream Raw Material Prices - The war rhythm was tortuous, oil prices fluctuated at a high level, and the price of coking coal was supported by energy - end disturbances [29] 3.4 Production - end High - frequency Data - This week, the production - end data of most commodities improved. Only the PE operating rate dropped to a recent low due to many maintenance devices. The supply and demand of soda ash and glass were both weak [33] 3.5 Inventory - end High - frequency Data - The inventories of gold and silver continued to decline slightly. The inventories of most industrial products showed the characteristic of de - stocking at a high level. The release of "Golden March" demand was an important reason for inventory de - stocking. However, the inventories of copper, aluminum, iron ore, methanol, PVC and other varieties were still at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the de - stocking rhythm needed to be continuously observed. The slaughter weight of pigs continued to rise, and the inventory pressure was still high [47] 3.6 Demand - end High - frequency Data - This week, real - estate data was generally positive. The sales areas of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities and first - tier cities were both rising. The listing index of second - hand housing for sale in national cities declined slightly, and the transaction area of second - hand housing in 16 cities also declined slightly but remained at a seasonally high level. The net financing scale of government bonds was slightly low this week, and the cumulative net financing amount of government bonds this year was lower than that of the same period last year. The passenger volume of the subway and the flight execution rate were both rising seasonally. The apparent consumption of rebar increased, and project construction accelerated. The freight rate index was still rising [71][72] 3.7 Key Commodity Basis - The report provides data on the basis of key commodities such as gold, copper, aluminum, rebar, iron ore, coking coal, crude oil, methanol, PTA, PVC, pigs and soybean meal, but no specific analysis content is given [84] 3.8 Commodity Price Ratios - The report provides data on commodity price ratios such as the gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio, gold - oil ratio, copper - oil ratio, copper - aluminum ratio, steel - ore ratio, agricultural - industrial ratio and pig - grain ratio, but no specific analysis content is given [97] 3.9 Summary and Outlook - The performance of commodities is expected to be energy and chemicals > ferrous metals > agricultural products > non - ferrous metals > precious metals. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of continuous reversal of market sentiment [3][105]