2026二季报：地缘剧变下的宏观逆风与供需重构

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In Q2 2026, the weight of macro factors (Fed policy, geopolitics) will be significantly higher than the supply - demand fundamentals. The strong rebound of the US dollar index will suppress copper prices. [8] - The supply - demand mismatch has shifted from "overall tightness" to "structural differentiation". The mine supply remains tight, but the smelting output is lower than expected due to raw material shortages and by - product crises. The demand side shows the characteristics of "severe switching between old and new kinetic energy", with traditional real estate and home appliances under pressure, while new energy and power grid investment are the only bright spots, but they are difficult to fully hedge the shadow of macro - recession. [8] - The volatility will be significantly amplified. Under the resonance of geopolitical black swans and macro grey rhinos, market sentiment is prone to extremism. It is recommended that industrial customers use derivatives such as options to strengthen risk management, and investors should be vigilant against the stampede risk caused by sudden changes in liquidity. [8] - Q2 2026 is not the end of the copper bull market but a sharp "squat" in the middle of the bull market. This adjustment will squeeze out the previous bubble valuation and lay a foundation for the real uptrend in the second half of the year and 2027. In the short term, it is recommended to try long on dips, strictly set stop - profit and stop - loss, and control positions. Industrial customers should flexibly adjust the hedging ratio, lock in reasonable profits, and strictly manage positions to control risks. In the long term, copper is highly regarded as an important strategic resource and a substitute for precious metals, combined with the shortage of copper concentrates and the explosion of green copper demand. [3][8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2026 Q2 Outlook - In Q2 2026, copper prices will show a significant "N" - shaped oscillation pattern with increased wide - range fluctuations. If the Middle East war expands, the global economy may fall into recession; if the situation eases, the commodity and stock markets may recover. [7] - The current deep correction of copper prices is the resonance of macro - headwinds and high - inventory weak reality. In the long - term, due to the shortage of copper concentrates and the explosion of green copper demand, the strategic security premium of copper in the Sino - US game will dominate, and copper prices will stabilize and oscillate in a new equilibrium range. [7] 3.2 Q1 2026 Market Review - The Q1 2026 copper market showed a roller - coaster trend divided into three stages: the first stage (January - February) was the "开门红 and expectation pre - run", with copper prices hitting historical highs and then falling back; the second stage (February - March) was the "high - level oscillation and increasing divergence", with copper prices in a narrow - range consolidation; the third stage (March - present) was the "geopolitical explosion and decline after reaching a high", with copper prices plummeting due to geopolitical events and high inventory. [10][11] - The core characteristics of the Q1 2026 market were "strong expectation, weak reality, and high volatility", exposing the fragility of market funds. [11] 3.3 Macro Analysis 3.3.1 Global Economic and Geopolitical Changes, Middle East War, and Energy Crisis - The Middle East war has led to an energy crisis, with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. If the war expands and prolongs, a global economic and financial crisis may break out in 2026. The global economic and trade growth expectations in 2026 will be significantly revised down. [15][16] - The high energy price has pushed up inflation, increased smelting and transportation costs, and suppressed demand. It has also disrupted the supply chain of copper, leading to a decline in global risk preference and a fall in copper prices. [19] - If the Taiwan Strait risk breaks out in 2026, copper prices may first fall and then rise due to supply security concerns and the explosion of military copper demand. [23] 3.3.2 Trump's Copper Tariff Ruled Illegal, but Tariff War 2.0 May Continue - Trump's previous copper tariffs were ruled illegal, but he may use the 301 investigation and other measures to start a new round of trade frictions. His policy has accelerated the regionalization of the copper supply chain and increased the uncertainty of the market. [24][26] - The US may impose selective tariffs on refined copper imports from some countries and build a global metal trading group to weaken China's influence in the mineral market, which may lead to China's counter - measures. [26] 3.3.3 The Myth of Copper Consumption in AI Data Centers Burst, and Geopolitical Changes Suppress the Technology Bubble - The claim that AI data centers need a large amount of copper was exaggerated. Although AI development depends on copper, the actual copper consumption in new fields is difficult to shake the traditional fields for now. [34] - The Middle East conflict has increased the operating cost of data centers, threatened the stability of chip production, and damaged the physical security of AI infrastructure, exposing the vulnerability of the AI industry's supply chain. [35][36] 3.3.4 The Fed's Hawkish Stance and the Shift of Global Monetary Policy Expectations - The Fed's interest rate cut expectations have decreased significantly in 2026 and 2027. The Fed is more focused on combating inflation. The high - interest - rate environment has a negative impact on the real economy and suppresses copper demand. [39] - The Fed's hawkish stance has forced other central banks to follow suit, which has weakened the global copper demand. [47] 3.3.5 The Disappointment of the "Two Sessions" Policy Expectations and the Increase of External Pressure - The actual implementation of policies after the "Two Sessions" in 2026 did not meet market expectations, and the external environment has deteriorated, making it difficult for domestic copper demand to recover. [49] - Trump's postponement of the visit to China has reignited market concerns about the "Tariff War 2.0". The government may take flexible measures to support copper demand in Q2. [50] 3.4 Supply Analysis 3.4.1 Intensified Global Competition for Copper Resources, Chinese Copper Enterprises' Overseas M&A Failure - Due to geopolitical risks and other factors, the long - term capital expenditure of global copper mines is insufficient, and the new supply is limited. The global leading copper mines are still dominated by European and American giants. [51][52] - Global copper mining giants are accelerating mergers, and some mining companies have lowered their 2026 copper production plans, increasing market concerns about supply shortages. [53] - The US plans to start a strategic key mineral reserve project and build a key mineral supply chain excluding China, which will affect the global copper supply pattern. [54] 3.4.2 Deep Inversion of Smelter Processing Fees, Industry Calls for Copper Concentrate Storage and Anti - Involution - The copper concentrate processing fees have reached a record low, and the smelting profit is under pressure. Some smelters have increased the purchase of blister copper, but the supply of blister copper is limited. [60][61] - The CSPT group plans to reduce the copper production capacity by more than 10% in 2026, and the industry association will promote copper resource reserve construction. [63] 3.4.3 Slowing Growth of Refined Copper Supply, Reverse Restriction of African Sulfur Shortage on Wet - Process Copper Capacity - Affected by raw material shortages and smelting maintenance, the growth of refined copper supply has slowed down. The shortage of sulfur in the Middle East has led to the reduction of African wet - process copper production. [67][68] - China's imports of unforged copper and copper products have decreased, and the domestic scrap copper market is affected by various factors. The overall supply of refined copper in 2026 is expected to grow at a slower pace. [69][70] 3.4.4 High Global Visible Inventory, the Tug - of - War between High Inventory and High Price - The copper market shows a paradox of high inventory and high price. The high - interest - rate policy has led to passive inventory accumulation, while some financial capital has hoarded copper as an anti - inflation asset. [74][75] - Although the current inventory is high, the market expects the inventory to decline rapidly after Q3 due to mine disruptions and smelting production cuts, which supports the near - term copper prices. [75] 3.5 Demand Analysis 3.5.1 The Fourth Industrial Revolution Triggers Electricity Demand, and "Token" Electricity Exports Provide a New Path - The fourth industrial revolution, including the development of new energy and AI, has increased the demand for electricity, which in turn drives the demand for copper. The power industry is the most important area for copper consumption. [79][80] - Overseas power market development and China's power exports will further increase the global copper demand in the power sector. China may explore the path of "RMB internationalization with electricity as the anchor". [81][83] - It is expected that the copper consumption in the domestic power industry in 2026 will increase by 6.78% year - on - year to 788 million tons, accounting for 47% of the total copper consumption. [87] 3.5.2 The Real Estate Market is at the Bottom, and the "Shanghai Seven Measures" Boost Confidence - The real estate market is still in a difficult situation, with over - inventory and weak demand. The "Shanghai Seven Measures" have boosted the confidence of the Shanghai real estate market, but the overall national real estate market needs more policy support. [90] - It is predicted that the copper consumption in the construction industry in 2026 will decline by 11.59% year - on - year to 2.9 million tons, accounting for 17% of the total copper consumption. [92] 3.5.3 Short - Term Pressure on Home Appliance Consumption, Long - Term Optimism - In the short term, the home appliance industry is under pressure, but in the long term, it is expected to recover with the improvement of the real estate market and the introduction of consumption - promotion policies. [95][99] - It is expected that the copper consumption in the home appliance industry in 2026 will be 2.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.42%, accounting for 14% of the total copper consumption. [99] 3.5.4 A Setback for New - Energy Vehicles, but the Energy Crisis Stimulates Electric Vehicle Consumption - In Q1 2026, the new - energy vehicle market was in an adjustment period, but the export performance was excellent. The energy crisis has increased the cost of fuel vehicles, making electric vehicles more competitive. [100][101] - It is expected that the copper consumption in the transportation industry in 2026 will be 2.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.07%, accounting for 14% of the total copper consumption. [101] 3.5.5 Considerable Growth in Industrial Machinery and Electronics, the Robot Industry Shines - The robot industry has a high demand for copper, and although its current contribution to global copper demand is small, it has great growth potential. [105][106] - It is expected that the copper consumption in the machinery and electronics industry in 2026 will be 1.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.69%, accounting for 8% of the total copper consumption. [107] 3.5.6 Cooling Speculative Enthusiasm, the Energy and Chemical Sector Siphons Funds from the Non - Ferrous Sector - Due to the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the "off - season in the peak season" of downstream demand, the speculative enthusiasm in the copper market has decreased. The energy and chemical sector has siphoned funds from the non - ferrous sector. [110] 3.5.7 Forecast of the 2026 Refined Copper Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2026, the global refined copper market is in a tight balance. The global refined copper supply is expected to be 28.65 million tons, with a growth rate of 0.53%, and the demand is expected to be 29 million tons, with a growth rate of 1.22%, resulting in a supply - demand gap of 350,000 tons. [114] - In China, the total supply of refined copper is expected to be 16.35 million tons, and the total demand is expected to be 16.6 million tons, with a supply - demand gap of 250,000 tons. [115]