申万期货品种策略日报-天胶-20260330

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The natural rubber is in a seasonal low-yield stage. The early start of tapping in Yunnan, China, has increased the expected pressure of new rubber supply, suppressing rubber prices. However, the domestic production areas are still in the early stage of tapping with low output, and the specific output situation needs continuous observation. The Thai production area is still in the low-yield season, which usually lasts until May. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, China, continues to accumulate, and the short-term supply-side elasticity weakens, with the raw material rubber price relatively firm. On the demand side, the start-up of all-steel tires is stable. The rubber price is currently facing the pressure of new rubber supply, but the strength of synthetic rubber forms a downward support. The short-term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Price and Spread: The previous day's closing prices of RU, NR, and BR were 16,555, 13,735, and 17,840 respectively. The price differences between RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - BR were 2,820, -1,285, and -4,105 respectively. Compared with the day before, RU rose by 95 (0.58%), NR rose by 100 (0.73%), and BR fell by 135 (-0.75%). The price differences changed by -5, 230, and 235 respectively. [2] - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of RU, NR, and BR were 82,998, 67,150, and 1,079,855 respectively. The open interests were 102,743, 47,433, and 102,156 respectively. The changes in open interest were 584, -3,597, and -14,791 respectively. [2] - Basis: The current basis of RU was -205, the basis of mixed - RU was -970, and the basis of smoked sheet - RU was 3,245. Compared with the previous value, the basis of RU decreased by 45, the basis of mixed - RU decreased by 35, and the basis of smoked sheet - RU increased by 5. [2] Spot Market - Domestic Spot: The current prices of whole milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming were 16,300, 16,350, and 16,200 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 0.62%, 0.31%, and 0.00% respectively. The prices of smoked sheet rubber in Shandong and Shanghai were 19,800 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.51%. The prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan were 15,585 and 16,290 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 0.39% and 0.40% respectively. [2] - Downstream Spot: The current prices of Thai smoked sheet, Thai cup rubber, and Thai latex were 77.96, 62.25, and 77.5 Thai baht/kg respectively. Compared with the previous value, Thai smoked sheet rose by 1.70%, Thai cup rubber remained unchanged, and Thai latex rose by 0.65%. [2]