2026年03月30日申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term core logic for being bullish on platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. Although there are short - term disturbances, they do not change the long - term bullish logic [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Platinum Futures: For contracts pt2606, pt2608, and pt2610, the current prices are 493.05, 491.10, and 489.35 respectively. The price changes are - 0.10, - 0.45, and 0.05, with price change rates of - 0.02%, - 0.09%, and 0.01%. The trading volumes are 5790, 157, and 77 respectively, and the open interests are all 13217 [1] - Palladium Futures: For contracts pd2606, pd2608, and pd2610, the current prices are 358.20, 358.00, and 357.50 respectively. The price changes are - 0.05, - 0.10, and - 2.30, with price change rates of - 0.01%, - 0.03%, and - 0.64%. The trading volumes are 2838, 33, and 39 respectively, and the open interests are all 4662 [1] Spot Market - Platinum Spot: The previous closing price of Shanghai platinum was 477.04 yuan/gram, with a price change of - 7.51 and a price change rate of - 0.015%. The previous closing price of London platinum was 1849.00 US dollars/ounce, with a price change of - 20.00 and a price change rate of - 0.011%. The previous closing prices of Zhou Dafu platinum and Lao Fengxiang platinum were 728.00 yuan/gram and 850.00 yuan/gram respectively, with price changes of - 32.00 and 0.00, and price change rates of - 0.042% and 0.000% [1] - Palladium Spot: The previous closing price of Chinese palladium was 342.00 yuan/gram, with a price change of - 9.00 and a price change rate of - 0.026%. The previous closing price of Russian palladium was 3579.34 rubles/gram, with a price change of - 207.26 and a price change rate of - 0.055% [1] Inventory - Platinum Inventory: The current NYMEX inventory is 558,767.51 ounces, a decrease of 14985.6 ounces compared to the previous value. The NYMEX registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 312,340.38 ounces. The current trading volume on the Gold Exchange is 138.00 kilograms, an increase of 64.0 kilograms compared to the previous value, and the trading amount is 6,547.26 million yuan, an increase of 2947.0 million yuan compared to the previous value [1] - Palladium Inventory: The NYMEX inventory and registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 248,373.69 ounces and 211,887.35 ounces respectively [1] Related Derivatives and Indexes - Related Indexes: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P 500 index, US Treasury yield, Nasdaq index, Dow Jones index, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 100.17, 6,368.85, 4.44, 20,948.36, 45,166.64, and 6.91 respectively. The changes compared to the previous values are 0.26, - 108.31, 0.02, - 459.72, - 793.47, and 0.01 respectively [1] - Related Derivatives: For Shanghai gold contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608, the current prices are 995.18, 998.66, and 1001.20 respectively, with price increases of 2.22, 2.68, and 2.38 compared to the previous closing prices. For Shanghai silver contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608, the current prices are 17558.00, 17489.00, and 17476.00 respectively, with price increases of 39, 17, and 12 compared to the previous closing prices [1] Macro News - Fed Interest Rate Decision: The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a 11 - 1 vote. Fed Governor Milan opposed the decision, advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The dot - plot shows only one rate cut in 2026 and 2027 each, indicating a more conservative rate - cut path [2] - Geopolitical Event: US - Israeli military strikes on Iran have disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - Fed Chair Nomination: US President Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. However, some senators oppose the nomination, and there are uncertainties about the confirmation process and subsequent policy independence [2] - PBOC Meeting: The People's Bank of China held a payment and settlement work meeting in 2026, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system and strengthening regulatory measures [3] Comments and Strategies - Market Performance: As of March 3, 2026, platinum and palladium have fallen 21.4% and 19.7% respectively from their January highs, and have also significantly retreated from their February 24 repair highs [4] - Core Disturbances: Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair has led to a short - term strengthening of the US dollar, dragging down platinum and palladium. There are uncertainties in the nomination process and subsequent policy independence [4] - Macro Factors: The judicial investigation of Powell has shaken the US dollar's credit. The global central bank gold - buying wave continues, highlighting the reserve value of platinum and palladium. Geopolitical risks in Greenland provide support, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in June remains unchanged [4] - Industry Factors: There is a clear supply - demand gap for platinum, with surging hydrogen energy demand and South African production capacity constraints. Palladium supply is rigid, and demand is supported by hybrid vehicle demand and strict emission policies [4]