美元二季度观点-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available 2. Core Viewpoints - The US economy in the second quarter is facing a very complex situation, with the weak real - economy and rising inflation posing challenges to the economic outlook [11] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the second quarter [11] - The Iran - US war is likely to end in April, and inflation caused by the energy shock is temporary [11] - There is a trend of the US dollar index weakening in the second quarter [11] 3. Summary by Related Contents Economic Situation - The current US economic situation is complex. Although recent real - economy data has risen, the labor market shows signs of a trend of weakness, and it is expected to continue to deteriorate while the downward pressure on the real economy will increase [3] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation will rise significantly due to the energy shock, but this energy price increase is more of a one - time shock. Central bank monetary policy will remain relatively cautious, and there is no obvious expectation of expanding easing in the second quarter [5] Real Estate Market - The real estate market remains weak. Due to the energy shock, the credit spread has begun to rise, further pressuring the weak real estate market. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the real - estate market's chain reaction in the second quarter, especially the negative impact of the real - estate market's negative feedback on the credit spread under the pressure of private fund redemptions [8] Dollar Index - The market expects the forward interest - rate cut rhythm to be postponed, and inflation pressure will cause the Federal Reserve to maintain relatively high interest rates. The energy crisis is likely to be resolved in the second quarter. The US dollar index may weaken in the second quarter if the energy crisis does not continue [10]