首席点评：海外鹰派VS国内韧性，地缘博弈下的宏观市场

Report Summary - Report Date: March 30, 2026 - Research Institute: Shenyin Wanguo Futures Research Institute 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekend market was dominated by geopolitical conflicts and policy games. Energy and precious metals fluctuated violently. The escalation of the Middle East situation pushed up the risk premium of crude oil, and the price of domestic refined gold jewelry approached 1,400 yuan/gram. Macro - policies showed differentiation: overseas, the Fed's dot - plot implied only one interest - rate cut in 2026, which suppressed risk assets; domestically, the central bank maintained reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to February increased by 15.2% year - on - year, showing the resilience of the industrial fundamentals [1]. - In 2026 Q1, the global capital market was characterized by global differentiation, technology re - evaluation, and policy disturbances. In Q2, as the earnings reports are released, the market logic will shift from "speculating on expectations" to "looking at performance realization" [4][11]. 3. Summary of Each Section Key Varieties - Crude Oil: The sc night - session rose 2.67%. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran shows no sign of stopping. Iran responded to the US cease - fire proposal and put forward strict conditions. The US Department of Defense is formulating military options against Iran [2][14]. - Precious Metals: Precious metals are in shock consolidation. The current adjustment is driven by the downward revision of interest - rate cut expectations and liquidity shocks. In the long - term, the price center will continue to rise due to geopolitical risks, concerns about US fiscal sustainability, and the de - dollarization process [3][20]. - Stock Index: The US three major indexes fell. The previous trading day, the stock index opened low and closed high. In Q2, the market logic will change, and high - valuation growth stocks face pressure, while low - valuation, high - dividend, and cash - flow - stable assets have stronger defensive properties [4][11]. Daily News Focus - International News: US President Trump claimed to control the Strait of Hormuz, and Vice - President Vance said the US would withdraw from Iran after completing its goals and that the rise in oil prices was a short - term reaction [6]. - Domestic News: On the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the Boao Forum for Asia, Hainan Free Trade Port made its first global appearance after the whole - island customs closure [7]. - Industry News: From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year - on - year, with significant growth in the non - ferrous, chemical, and semiconductor industries [8][9]. Overseas Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 fell 1.67%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.79%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.70%, the US dollar index rose 0.26%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 8.14%, and precious metals such as London gold and silver also rose [10]. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - Financial: The stock index has the same situation as mentioned before. Treasury bonds have mixed performance. The central bank's operations keep the capital market relatively stable, but long - term treasury bond futures prices may face pressure due to factors such as the Middle East situation and inflation expectations [11][12][13]. - Energy and Chemical: Methanol night - session rose 4.29%, with an increase in the operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants and a decrease in coastal inventories. Rubber is in the low - production season, with new supply pressure expected, but the price is supported by the strong synthetic rubber. Polyolefins rebounded, and attention should be paid to the conflict situation and device operation. Glass and soda ash futures are weak, with high inventories and supply - demand imbalances [15][16][17][19]. - Metals: Copper and zinc prices may fluctuate in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, downstream demand, and the US dollar. Aluminum prices may rise due to supply risks caused by the Middle East conflict [21][22][23]. - Black Metals: The double - coking market was weak on Friday night, but the decline is expected to be limited due to the recovery of rigid demand and the impact of the geopolitical conflict on the coal market [25]. - Agricultural Products: Protein meal is affected by the Brazilian soybean harvest and the expected increase in US soybean exports. Oils are expected to be in high - level shock due to bio - fuel policies and oil price risks. The pig price is expected to remain low due to oversupply and weak demand. Sugar is affected by the Middle East situation and ethanol prices. Cotton is expected to be in shock in the short - term and supply may be tight in the long - term [26][27][28][29][30]. - Shipping Index: The container shipping European route fell on Friday. The price is affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors, and is expected to be in a shock pattern in the short - term [32].