20260330申万期货品种策略日报-双焦（J&J）-20260330

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The double - coking futures market showed a weak trend in the night session last Friday, and the total open interest remained basically flat compared to the previous period. Although the growth rate of coking coal production has slowed down, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is still at the highest level in the same period, and the supply - side pressure of coking coal remains. With the end of environmental protection production restrictions and the advancement of the peak season of terminal demand, the hot metal production has continued to increase, providing an increment for the rigid demand of double - coking. It is expected that the hot metal production will increase seasonally in the near future, driving the demand for double - coking. Considering the current repeated geopolitical situation, it can also stimulate coal prices by increasing the valuation of energy - related commodities. Therefore, it is judged that coal prices still have support. Attention should be paid to the changes in hot metal production, the mining start - up rhythm, and the evolution of the geopolitical situation [2]. 3. Summary of Relevant Content Futures Market Data - Closing Prices: For coking coal, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 1550.0, 1219.0, and 1357.0 respectively, with price drops of - 12.0, - 11.0, and - 11.5, and declines of - 0.77%, - 0.89%, and - 0.84% respectively. For coke, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 1926.0, 1752.0, and 1839.5 respectively, with price drops of - 5.0, - 9.0, and - 6.5, and declines of - 0.26%, - 0.51%, and - 0.35% respectively [2]. - Trading Volume: The trading volumes for coking coal contracts in January, May, and September were 787836, 226125, and 17152 respectively, and for coke contracts in January, May, and September were 15047 and 2973 respectively [2]. - Open Interest: The open interests for coking coal contracts in January, May, and September were 20994, 401093, and 198070 respectively, and for coke contracts in January, May, and September were 2216, 30273, and 13065 respectively. The changes in open interest were - 98, 17896, - 1498 for coking coal and - 3, - 1226, 424 for coke [2]. - Price Spreads: For coking coal, the price spreads of May - September, January - May, and September - January were - 79.5, 240, and - 160.5 respectively, with changes of 306, 2.5, and - 308.5. For coke, the price spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 160.5, - 77.5, and - 83 respectively, with changes of 429.5, 2, and - 431.5 [2]. Spot Market Data - The spot prices of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade coking coal at Taiyuan rail - siding price, Mongolian No.5 main coking coal at port self - pick - up price, low - sulfur main coking coal at Linfen ex - factory price, Tangshan first - grade coke at ex - factory price, and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke at ex - warehouse price were 1308, 1600, 1529, 1800, 1280, and 1500 respectively, and there were no changes in spot prices [2]. National Industrial Profit Data - From January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in the country was 1024.56 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. By enterprise type, the total profit of state - owned holding enterprises was 366.56 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%; that of joint - stock enterprises was 803.29 billion yuan, an increase of 22.1%; that of foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises was 216.75 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8%; and that of private enterprises was 284.45 billion yuan, an increase of 37.2%. By industry, the total profit of the mining industry was 155.61 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.9%; that of the manufacturing industry was 732.15 billion yuan, an increase of 18.9%; and that of the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water was 136.8 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7% [2].