格林大华期货早盘提示：甲醇-20260330

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol in the energy and chemical sector is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The complex and volatile geopolitical situation in the Middle East causes significant fluctuations in international crude oil prices. The domestic methanol port inventory has decreased this week, with a significant reduction in imports expected from March to April. Some port olefin plants downstream have resumed operation. Under the influence of geopolitical factors, the methanol price is expected to fluctuate strongly [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Friday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 rose by 139 yuan to 3381 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East China region rose by 95 yuan to 3360 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions increased by 44,103 lots to 454,000 lots, and short positions increased by 18,547 lots to 422,000 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 92.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 48.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9% [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of methanol ports in China is 115.55 tons, a decrease of 10.62 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the inventory in the East China region decreased by 8.47 tons, and the inventory in the South China region decreased by 2.15 tons. The inventory of sample methanol production enterprises in China is 43.50 tons, a decrease of 5.04 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.39% [2] - Demand: The signed orders of methanol enterprises in the Northwest are 4.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.74 tons. The orders to be shipped of sample enterprises are 28.39 tons, an increase of 0.46 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.64%. The olefin operating rate is 86.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 81.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%; the acetic acid operating rate is 84.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 45.6%, a month - on - month increase of 3.1%; the MTBE operating rate is 69.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3% [2] - Imports: In December 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.734 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%, and the average import price was 240.61 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23%. Among them, the imports from Saudi Arabia were the largest, at 604,400 tons, with an average import price of 238.74 US dollars/ton. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 14.4054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75% [2] - Oil Prices: The continuous blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has increased supply risks, and the market doubts the prospects of the US - Iran peace talks, leading to an increase in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 05 contract rose 5.16 US dollars/barrel to 99.64 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 5.46%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 05 contract rose 4.56 US dollars/barrel to 112.57 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 4.22%. The China INE crude oil futures 2605 contract rose 12.1 to 740.5 yuan/barrel, and rose 19.8 to 760.3 yuan/barrel at night [2] Market Logic - The complex geopolitical situation in the Middle East causes international crude oil to fluctuate sharply at high levels. The domestic methanol port inventory has decreased this week, and imports are expected to decrease significantly from March to April. Some port olefin plants downstream have resumed operation. Under the influence of geopolitical factors, the methanol price fluctuates strongly [2] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions at low levels [2]