供应扰动持续发酵，碳酸锂大幅回升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply disruption of lithium carbonate continues to ferment, and its price has rebounded significantly. The 3 - 4 month supply - demand of lithium carbonate maintains a tight balance, which may be further extended under the support of supply disruption expectations. Short - term price fluctuations are large, while the medium - to - long - term price center still has certain support [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 6.1% to 108,440 yuan per ton today. The price rebounded again. On one hand, the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still in a tight balance. This week, the macro - sentiment improved and risk appetite rebounded, driving the linkage of lithium - related stocks. On the other hand, the expectation of supply - side disruptions has increased. There is an expectation that the export ban in Zimbabwe may be extended, and the diesel shortage in Australia due to geopolitical factors may constrain lithium mining and shipping [2] Fundamental Situation - Supply: After the Spring Festival, the production line operation of domestic lithium carbonate quickly recovered, and the output continued to rise. The import of lithium carbonate in the first quarter also maintained good growth. However, there are frequent factors disturbing the supply, increasing market concerns. The ore export ban in Zimbabwe has lasted for nearly a month, and the recovery time is unclear. The diesel supply shortage in Australia has affected mining operations. The supply uncertainty has increased [3] - Demand: In March, the consumption in the battery sector reached a relatively high level, supporting the lithium price. However, the performance of the new - energy vehicle market still needs to be observed. The production and sales of domestic new - energy vehicles were at a low stage from January to February, and the retail sales in early March were still under pressure. With the arrival of the peak season, there is an expectation of improvement in production and sales, and the demand for electric vehicles and energy storage may be boosted [3] - Inventory: The previous inventory of lithium carbonate continued to decline and has now slightly increased, but the fundamentals are still relatively tight [3] Summary and Strategy - The supply - demand of lithium carbonate will maintain a tight - balance pattern from March to April, and this state may be further extended. Short - term price fluctuations are large, and the sustainability of the driving force needs verification; the medium - to - long - term price center still has certain support. Downstream enterprises can buy on dips or moderately carry out hedging, and institutional investors can pay attention to the callback - buying opportunities under macro - fluctuations and large - scale price fluctuations [4]