几内亚矿端政策扰动夯实氧化铝价格底部支撑

Report Summary - In 2025, China's total bauxite imports were 200 million tons, with 150 million tons imported from Guinea, accounting for 75%. Guinea's exports in 2025 were 183 million tons, a year-on-year increase of over 25%, and exports to China accounted for 81% of total exports [4]. - In 2025, China consumed 180 million tons of imported bauxite, with the consumption of imported ore accounting for 72%. As of February 2026, the consumption ratio of imported bauxite had increased to 75%. In 2026, with the launch of new production capacity in Guangxi, the consumption of imported ore will continue to increase, and it is expected to reach 200 million tons [4][22]. - Based on China's bauxite imports in 2025, the supply and demand of imported ore will be in static balance in 2026, and port inventories will remain unchanged. However, due to the increase in consumption, the available days will decline, and there may be a shortage of raw material reserves for newly - added alumina production capacity. Therefore, the actual spot market will show a supply shortage. If Guinea restricts bauxite exports to less than 180 million tons, it will likely lead to a clear shortage of bauxite supply [4][22]. - Calculated at an imported bauxite price of $70 per ton, the marginal highest cash cost of producing alumina in China using imported ore is about 2,650 yuan per ton. The current market spot transaction price is 2,800 - 2,850 yuan per ton, meaning that enterprises still have a cash - flow profit of over 150 yuan per ton. The oversupply situation restricts the upward movement of alumina prices [5][25]. - The oversupply pattern of alumina may need to squeeze the profits of alumina plants from the cost side, causing them to actively carry out maintenance and reduce production. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of Guinea's ore - restriction policy, which will trigger an upward cycle in the FOB price of bauxite. Since the increase in alumina sales prices lags behind, the oversupply pattern of alumina can be changed, opening up room for price increases [5][31]. Freight Fluctuations Squeeze FOB Price, Forcing Guinea Policy Disturbance - On February 28, 2026, the US - Iran war started. The Brent crude oil price soared from $70 per barrel to a peak of $110 per barrel. The freight for bauxite transported from Guinea to China increased from $23.5 per ton to $31.5 per ton, a rise of $8 per ton. In the context of an oversupply of bauxite and a continuous increase in shipping volume over the years, the CIF price of Guinea bauxite in China only increased from $60 per ton to $66.5 per ton, and the transaction situation was rather stalemate. The CIF price in China was pushed up by freight, but the increase was less than the rise in freight, forcing the FOB price of Guinea to bear pressure, which may prompt Guinea to introduce substantial policies to reverse the supply situation [12]. - The FOB price of Guinea bauxite dropped from a high of $75 per ton at the beginning of 2025 to the current $35 per ton. At the same time, Guinea's exports in 2025 soared to 183 million tons, a year - on - year increase of over 25%. This situation of increasing volume but decreasing price has put Guinea, which mainly relies on selling minerals for income, in a dilemma of increasing volume but not increasing revenue [12]. - In the past 1 - 2 years, Guinea has taken actions in the bauxite field. It revoked the mining license of Emirates Aluminium for failing to fulfill the commitment to build an alumina plant and transferred it to a Guinean state - owned enterprise. It also revoked the mining licenses of 51 mining companies, including the Axis mine (the Axis mine has since resumed operation), for reasons such as non - operation, under - utilization of mines, and failure to fulfill the obligation to build processing plants. The ultimate goal is to "force" mining enterprises to build alumina plants in Guinea. It requires that 50% of bauxite exports must be transported by ships flying the Guinean flag and established a state - owned shipping company to control the profits in the logistics link. By launching the "Guinea Bauxite Price Index (GBX)", it challenges the existing international pricing system and tries to gain more power in transportation and pricing. This is a typical practice of "resource nationalism", aiming to transform resource advantages into economic sovereignty and development impetus [13]. Impact of Export Restrictions - On March 12, the Guinean government began discussions with the mining association to control the market ore supply to prevent price drops and avoid a reduction in enterprise income and government tax revenue. It is expected that the reduced export volume will be clarified in early April. Although it is not a strict quota system, the total export volume will be reduced, and a full - scale export ban is excluded. A large Guinean bauxite enterprise suspended the operation of an excavator at the end of March, reducing the daily output by about 9,000 tons. This seems to indicate that Guinea can increase national fiscal revenue and enterprise profits by restricting export volume to raise prices. Driven by this common interest, the government and enterprises have the same goal, which helps the effective implementation of the policy [18]. - China has a rigid demand for imported bauxite, and with the commissioning of new production capacity in Guangxi, the demand for imported ore is still increasing. Although non - mainstream mining areas such as Australia, Sierra Leone, Guyana, and Turkey can increase the bauxite supply, Guinea's high supply ratio is difficult to replace, and policy disturbances cannot be ignored. The impact of Guinea's ore - restriction policy will play a decisive role [18]. Alumina Static Supply Remains Oversupplied - In the first quarter, an alumina plant in Hebei reduced production by 2 million tons due to indicator issues, and the weekly alumina production declined from its high level. However, from the perspective of static balance, the oversupply pattern has not been reversed. Due to disturbances such as anti - involution, crude oil freight, and Guinea policy expectations, the alumina futures price rebounded from the bottom and has been at a long - term premium to the spot price. The risk - free selling and delivery profit has locked most of the spot in the form of warehouse receipts, and the inter - month spread in the futures market also supports risk - free positive arbitrage. As a result, the oversupply is not reflected in the spot market, and the spot market price has risen firmly [24]. - Calculated at an imported bauxite price of $70 per ton, the marginal highest cash cost of producing alumina in China using imported ore is about 2,650 yuan per ton. The current market spot transaction price is 2,800 - 2,850 yuan per ton, meaning that enterprises still have a cash - flow profit of over 150 yuan per ton. It is still too early for alumina plants to actively reduce production, and the oversupply situation restricts the upward movement of alumina prices [25]. Short - Term Oil Price Interference, Long - Term Cost Boosts Alumina Price Center of Gravity Upward - For the long - term bauxite pricing in the second quarter, it may be a fixed Guinea FOB price plus fluctuating sea freight. Currently, calculated at a cost of $70 per ton (FOB $38 per ton), the corresponding marginal minimum price in the futures market is 2,700 yuan per ton. Therefore, the short - term fluctuation of the alumina futures price is significantly affected by the crude oil price. That is, the expectation of a decline in freight caused by a drop in the crude oil price weakens the short - term cost support [30]. - The current alumina spot price is at par with the futures price at about 2,800 - 2,850 yuan per ton. As mentioned above, the spot market does not show oversupply. Although there are pressures from warehouse receipts and inventories, the spot price is temporarily firm. If the crude oil price fluctuation causes the futures price to fall, after the futures premium narrows, the spot price will support the futures price. If the futures price drops below the spot price, it will digest the warehouse receipt pressure and still support the price [30]. - Under the current static oversupply pattern of alumina, with high inventory pressure and alumina plants still having cash profits, it is difficult to open up room for alumina price increases, and it is not cost - effective to chase up alumina prices. However, since Guinea's policy is expected to fundamentally reverse the oversupply situation of bauxite, the previous low - point support of the alumina futures price is effective. Alumina prices can be considered for long - position layout at low prices and wait for the impact of bauxite to ferment [30].