航运衍生品数据日报-20260330

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, EC showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with high - level oscillations and a decline. The geopolitical premium gradually converged, and the market focus returned to the supply - demand fundamentals of the off - season. In the short term, the impact of geopolitical fluctuations continued to weaken, and weak off - season demand and shipping company capacity adjustments became the core determinants. EC is likely to maintain range - bound oscillations. [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shipping Derivatives Data - China's export container freight rates: SCFI - West US had a current value of 1703, a previous value of 1707, and a decline of 1.07%; SCFI - East US had a current value of 2817, a previous value of 2922, and a decline of 4.10%; SCFIS - West US had a current value of 2352, a previous value of 2054, and an increase of 11.70%; SCFI - Northwest Europe had a current value of 1109, a previous value of 1121, and a decline of 1.64%; the composite index SCFI had a current value of 3264, a previous value of 3109, and an increase of 4.50%; SCFI - Mediterranean had a current value of 1556, a previous value of 2784, and a decline of 44.07%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe had a current value of 2764, a previous value of 1545, and an increase of 78.90%. [1] Geopolitical Situation - Iran's President Pezeshkian had a call with the Prime Minister of Pakistan, hoping to promote dialogue and ease the situation. Iran stopped supplying 10 million cubic meters of natural gas to southern Iraq since the evening of the 27th. The Houthi armed forces launched an attack on Israel for the first time. Iran's military is formulating conditions for the end of the war and warning the US and Israel. The US is preparing for a ground operation in Iran. [2] Market Analysis - Futures: The main contract continued to decline, trading volume and open interest both contracted, the basis converged rapidly near the delivery month, and funds gradually moved to far - month contracts. [4] - Spot market: Shipping companies' previous price - holding efforts weakened, some shipping merchants lowered booking quotes, the spot freight rate center dropped slightly, market transactions were light, and shippers were hesitant. [4] - Supply - demand: European terminal demand is in the traditional off - season, export cargo volume is sluggish in rebound, downstream stocking willingness is weak. Shipping companies' capacity control strategy has loosened slightly, and effective supply has increased slightly. European ports are operating smoothly. [4] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see. [5]